Gopher Hoops

Michigan Game Preview

2006-01-20T09:05:00.000-08:00

It's only the 1st week back at school for me, but I'm already up to neck in homework, so I'll be back sometime around 5:00 this afternoon with a brief Michigan game preview.

-Grant Peterson

Hawkeyes 76, Gophers 72 (3OT)

2006-01-19T07:38:00.000-08:00

It doesn't get more frustrating then this.

This game didn't get into three overtimes by itself. The Gophers let it get that way. They had the last possession in regulation and the first overtime, and held a four point lead midway through the second overtime. And yes, a four point lead in a game like this, where both teams are playing outstanding defense, is a big deal.

What baffles me is why Dan Monson called timeouts on the team's final possessions in overtime and regulation. Both times, the ball was given to Grier at the top of the key, and he tried (extremely unsuccessfully) to create his own shot. I don't have a huge problem with Grier taking the final shot, even though he has been awful during the Big Ten season. But what is the point of calling timeout if you're not going to design any kind of a play? At least if Monson would have just let them play, Iowa wouldn't have had the chance to get its defense set up.

If the Gophers ever came out of timeout, with something that resembled a play designed to get an open look, I would have no problem with them calling a timeout. I just don't understand why it's necessary if you're probably going to do the same thing either way. But enough with that.

Last night's game marked the emergence of Jonathan Williams as an option on the offensive end. A good option? Probably not. Williams essentially has no back-to-the-basket moves and no range, but he showed the ability to move without the ball and aggressively attack the basket. He also showed a nose for offensive rebounds, gathering six offensive rebounds. If J'son Stamper is going to make a habit of setting the course record (fouling out without scoring a point), Williams may be able to replace what Stamper brings to the table as a solid rebounder with limited scoring ability.

However, Williams is a brutal free-throw shooter, as he went 3 for 7 last night and is 4 for 13 on the year. He might have better luck if went to the line with a blindfold.

Speaking of brutal free-throw shooting, the Gophers continue to get worse and worse from the line as a team. At 63.1 percent, they rank 302nd in the nation. When the team already has trouble scoring, bad free-throw shooting can cost them games. You could argue that it did the trick last night.

The Gophers were quite successful in getting offensive rebounds, as Grant P. mentioned that it would be a key for the Gophers if they wanted to win last nights game. The Gophers rebounded 18 out of 53 possible boards on their end of the court. However the also gave up 16 offensive boards on 44 rebound opportunties to the Hawkeyes and Greg Brunner grabbed seven of them on his way to a 17 point/16 rebound double-double.

Last night's game had to have had a terrible effect on this team. They have to be wondering exactly how they are going to win a game, after having so many opportunities to do so last night. With Iowa's lockdown defense, I thought this would be an impossible game to win, but somehow the Gophers managed to put up enough points to almost pull off the upset. They just couldn't seal the deal.

It will be interesting to see how the team reacts against Michigan Saturday, which I believe is a very winnable game at the Barn. While there's pretty much no hope for the team making the tourney (at least the big one that people actually pay attention to), I'm hoping that the team hasn't completely given up, and maybe win a game or two that they probably shouldn't. We'll see if the Gophers can get past this loss, and the three before it and give a decent effort against the Wolverines.

Iowa Game Preview

2006-01-18T07:11:00.000-08:00

When the Golden Gophers take on Iowa this evening at Carver-Hawkeye Arena they will begin a rebuilding stage of sorts. The task is somewhat unclear for the Gophers for the rest of the season, but one thing is for sure, they need to start something positive on the offensive end. Needless to say, playing the best defensive team in the Big Ten won't help. Grant suggested that the over/under on the Gophers offensive output be 42 points. If Minnesota didn't create so many turnovers on the defenisive end, I'd be tempted to take the under. But with a game that should see about 60-65 possessions per team, I think 40 points or under would be a performance even this offense is not capable of.

Statistical Matchup

Offense
Iowa 95.6 Offensive Efficiency (10th in Big Ten, 210th in nation)
Minnesota 97.4 Offensive Efficiency (8th in Big Ten, 181st in nation)

Defense
Iowa 81.0 (1st in Big Ten, 1st in nation)
Minnesota 88.8 (3rd in Big Ten, 32nd in nation)

Glancing at the numbers it becomes quite obvious that this is going to be a low scoring affair. While Minnesota has been the slightly better offensive team throughout the year, that certainly hasn't been true as of late. Minnesota's offense has completely dropped off a cliff feature offensive efficiencies of 74.5, 81.7, and 81.4 in their last three games.

Meanwhile Iowa continues to play stellar defense, holding Illinois to an offensive efficiency of just 70.5! in a 63-48 Hawkeye victory in Iowa City. In their last game however, Penn State, while narrowly losing 80-76 was able to post a respectable 102.7 offensive rating. For the rest of the preview I will focus on how they did that as it is what I feel the Gophers must do if they have a shot to win this game.

Basically Iowa's bread and butter on defense has been field goal defense. The Hawkeyes have held opponents to a 41.6 eFG% which ranks 4th in the nation. A close second to that performance in importance has been their dominating prescence on the defensive boards, led by Greg Brunner and Doug Thomas. Iowa is rebounding 73.1% of their opponents misses which ranks 15th in the nation. Given Minnesota's poor shooting on the offensive end, I think they need to focus on trying to get some offensive boards. That means J'son Stamper, who is still bothered by injuries, needs to get some minutes and be effective.

This, however, was not the approach that Penn State took as it was able to shoot at a reasonable rate against Iowa. The 47.6 eFG% that they posted might not look that great, but against Iowa that is an accomplishment. Couple that with the fact that they only turned over the ball on 12.2% of their possesions, and that was enough to bring them up to respectability even though they didn't get to the line very much and didn't get any more than Iowa's average number of offensive boards allowed.

How were they able to shoot so well? Looking at the box score it appears that a balanced attack from the inside and the outside was the key. Forwards Travis Parker, and Jamelle Cornley both had big nights from the field shooting 7-13 and 6-12 respectively. All of Cornley's shots came from two point range, while Parker was actually 6-8 from inside the three point line. As for the outside attack guards Ben Luber and Mike Walker both provided plenty of production. Luber was 2-5 from three point range and Walker was 4-8. Can Minnesota follow this model?

Well not if they keep playing like they have. But I hope Dan Monson has been paying attention and is finally ready to mix it up. Here's the game plan. Minnesota needs to get the ball to the post and then pass it out. I think that means force feeding the ball to Spencer Tollackson and running the offense through him. That means having Abu-Shamala on the court for at least 15-20 minutes so that they have a legitimate outside threat. That means kicking the ball out to Adam Boone and yes even Rico Tucker and hoping they make shots. It's not a great option, but I think it is the only chance they have. So far Monson has shown a complete unwillingness to chance his offensive game plan despite any real results. Let's hope the desperation will change his mind.

Prediction: Iowa 60, Minnesota 52

Boilermakers 72, Gophers 55

2006-01-17T01:44:00.000-08:00

While I was relegated to watching Saturday's game in the suburbs at Joe Sensor's (yes, nowhere on campus has spent the money to buy ESPN Fullcourt, even a recently reopened bar that obviously has spent an inordinate amount of cash on dozens of new televisions), two of our good friends made the trip to Mackey Arena.

Scott McDonald, a Gopher fan exiled in Indianapolis, has decided to take on the somewhat unpleasant task of rehashing this ugly contest. Therefore, I'll turn it over to him to tell his story. Scott has never been one to bite his tongue, and because of the magnitude of the loss, I will publish what he sent me virtually unedited

-Grant Boelter

The Minnesota Golden Gophers remained winless in the Big Ten after a 72-55 loss to the Purdue Boilermakers, Saturday night in West Lafayette, IN. The Boilermakers were led by Marcus White’s 17 points and Adam Boone’s 11 points paced the Gophers. The Gophers are now alone in the cellar in the Big Ten standings with an 0-3 record. This was very disappointing for me because Ben Butzow and I witnessed it first hand at Mackey Arena. It was the first Gophers game I have seen all year and I was extremely pissed.

This game was clearly a game of two of the worst teams in the Big Ten. There were stretches in the game where it looked like an eighth grade girls' game. The Gophers looked good coming out of the gate and surprisingly jumped to a quick 9-2 lead. A fiery defense caused 17 turnovers on the night, but that was not enough as the Gophers continued to have very long dry spells on the offensive end. The Gophers were able to hit some open threes and capitalize on some turnovers in the first half. They went into halftime knotted up at 33 a piece.

The second half was a different story. The Gophers shot a disgusting 9 percent from 3-point land and were out-rebounded 26-12. The Gophers came out and hung tough for the first 10 minutes. Then they hit the inevitable Gopher Road Wall and were stuck on 47 points for nearly six minutes in the second half. When all was said and done the Gophers were outscored 26-8 in the last ten minutes of the game. Matt Kiefer had a solid 13 boards and 12 points for the Boilers, while nailing some timely treys. Purdue was just more disciplined and a balanced second half scoring attack just crushed the Gophers.

The Gophers continued to time and time again Saturday night leave a wide-open shooter for a triple. Dan Monson continued his mutiny of a down-low game and went to Spencer Tollackson only for a brief three minutes to begin the second half. In this 3-minute time framem I saw the best looks from the Gopher offense and we scored almost at will. Nevertheless we broke away from this pattern and decided to become a one-dimensional team. Tollackson played a very solid game and it was the only positive in the game for the Gophers.

In order for this team to win the Big Ten tournament, which is likely the only way they are going to make it to the NCAA tournament, is to play as a team. Vincent Grier needs to quit having delusions of grandeur. Dan Monson needs to realize that Tollackson can score on the block and has a great eye for the open man. Dan Coleman and Rico Tucker need to wake up and take a shot selection class. Most importantly the Gophers need to keep up their intensity and continue to create turnovers while developing some sort of offensive game plan. This team has the talent to be an alright team but just lacks the cohesion and discipline.

-Scott McDonald

Minnoy Out

2006-01-14T14:44:00.000-08:00

We mistakenly penciled Nate Minnoy into the rotation for Purdue in our preview. He injured his knee and is out for the season. If anyone sees this before the game, feel free to make a recommendation as far as a bar to go to watch the game, since it's only on ESPN Fullcourt. Hopefully we see a solid win.

-Grant Boelter

Purdue Game Preview

2006-01-13T07:12:00.000-08:00

If last Tuesday's game was a must-win for the Gophers, then Saturday's tilt at Purdue is do-or-die. Only two games into the season, I'd already put Minnesota's chances of reaching the NCAA Tournament at slim. With Purdue opening the Big Ten season 0-3, they are the only team looking up at the Gophers in the standings. If they lose this game there is NO chance. We'll have two of our best friends in attendance this weekend in Mackey Arena so we hope to get some insight from them which we will include in our recap on Monday. For now onto the preview.

Purdue Boilermakers
Offensive Efficiency:93.8, 11th Big Ten, 231st nationally
Defensive Efficiency:100.1, 9th Big Ten, 199th nationally

Starting Backcourt

G Bryant Dillon, Sr. 30.4 mpg, 4.7 ppg, 2.4 apg, 2.6 topg, 1.05 ppws, 49.1 eFG%
G Korey Spates, Fr. 27.4 mpg, 11.1 ppg, 1.8 apg, 3.2 topg, 0.95 ppws, 43.4 eFG%
G Kris Lutz, Fr. 28.6 mpg, 10.9 ppg, 1.4 apg, 3.1 topg, 1.08 ppws, 51.2 eFG%

As was stated in our preview of the Boilermakers, they have been seriously depleted by the loss of David Teague and Carl Landry. These injuries have left them forced to start the above three guards. it's not clear that any of them deserve to be there and its obvious why Purdue has struggled. The best performance so far has been by freshman Kris Lutz which bodes well for the future, but in the here and now Purdue guards are turning it over at alarming rates and not hitting many of their shots. While Minnesota guards are actually protecting the ball fairly well as of late, they also are not hitting any of their shots. In the preseason against less experienced guards Minnesota performed much better, however, and I expect them to bounce back against the young Boilers.

Advantage: Minnesota

Starting Froncourt

F Nate Minnoy, Fr. 26.0 mpg, 11.0 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 2.9 topg, 1.13 ppws, 57.8 eFG%
F Matt Kiefer, Sr. 26.4 mpg, 11.9 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 1.6 topg, 1.14 ppws, 55.4 eFG%

In contrast to the backcourt the starting frontcourt has produced rather efficiently for Purdue this season. Led by Matt Kiefer, a senior who I've always thought was a nice player, the starting frontcourt has combined for an average of 11.9 rpg while each only averaging around 26 minutes. The two froncourt mates also lead the team in ppws and eFG%. With the recent disappearance of Spencer Tollackson and the inconsistent play of Dan Coleman it would be easy to give the advantage to Purdue in this aspect, but Minnoy is only 6'3" and with Minnesota's big guards and tall forwards there will be a mismatch somewhere. My guess is that Dan Monson will try to exploit the matchup with whomever Minnoy is guarding man-to-man. Of course if Purdue has been paying attention they will probably try to play zone against Minnesota most of the time. The Minnesota guards need to stop taking so many shots and get the big men involved, but I just don't see them making a complete 180 in this game.

Advantage: Purdue

Bench

F Gary Ware, Sr. 13.9 mpg, 3.8 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 1.00 ppws, 50 eFG%
G Marcus Green, Fr. 19.4 mpg, 5.6 ppg, 1.1 apg, 2.0 topg, 1.06 ppws, 46.9 eFG%
G Chris Hartley, Sr. 12.9 mpg, 1.4 ppg, 1.6 apg, 1.01 ppws, 41.2 eFG%

The Purdue bench is full of guys who don't score efficiently. Ware provides some good rebounding and Hartley some assists, and Green some scoring, but none does more than one thing well. Minnesota on the other hand has Rico Tucker, who can come off the bench and play some defense but, excepting last game, is a liability on offense. They also have Jonathan Williams who likewise plays defense and can rebound, but provides nothing on offense. Finally, if they choose to use him, they have Abu-Shamala who can come of the bench and hit a few shots.

Advantage: Minnesota

Obviously Minnesota offense is struggling, but the key to this ball game is still defense. Right now it is the only thing keeping them in games, and if it falters than the offense cannot bail them out. Against what will be the easiest opponent that Minnesota faces the rest of the way the offense should get healthy, provided they can move away from such a guard oriented attack. I have high hopes that Rico Tucker will find new confidence with his last performance and that Abu-Shamala will get about 15 minutes to give the offense some help.

Prediction: Minnesota 70, Purdue 55

-Grant Peterson

Breaking It Down

2006-01-12T10:36:00.000-08:00

So let me get this straight. I leave the country for five days in Mexico City, and I return to this. A humilating home loss to Northwestern (again) and ever so close but not quite loss to the rival Badgers. I'd have to say starting 0-2 at home in the Big Ten is pretty much the doomsday scenario for the Gophers. If the Gophers lose this weekend at Purdue the tone of this blog could get ugly. Since I didn't get a chance to see either game, except for the last 1:44 of the Badger game while I was in the Phoenix airport, I'm simply going to give my thoughts about the games by looking at the box scores.

Northwestern

Definitely the Gophers worst game offensively, its easy to see why it happened: guard play, guard play guard play. Every Gopher guard had a horrible shooting night. All of our three starting guards played 38 or 39 minutes and had the following shooting lines: Boone 3-10, Hargrow 3-9, Grier 6-16. During the non-conference season I was concerned about Grier taking a lot of shots against the likes of Grambling and NDSU, and now I believe my concerns were well founded. My thinking at the time was that, yes, we know Grier can score 25 against Grambling. Big deal, pass the ball. But he didn't and it seems he didn't much in this game either. 16 shots is alot in a game that featured about 66 possesions. Grier accounted for 31.3% of the teams 51 shots. I think this is especially troubling since he also did not record a single assist. During the preaseason Grier took a lot of shots which were not in the framework of the offense. I was told that this was the case in this game as well.

Favorite Gopher Hoops whipping boy Rico Tucker also contributed greatly to the losing of this game although he only played 15 minutes. He took three shots (two three-pointers) and missed all three. He managed to turn the ball over four times, didn't record any steals and also missed one of his two free throws.

The one aspect of this game that sticks out to me is that Jamal Abu-Shamala only played ten minutes, making a lone three pointer. It often seems to me that Dan Monson does not know how to manage his personnel and this move only furthers that thought for me. Grant B. tells me that Abu-Shamala has looked a little overmatched against the more athletic Big Ten opponents and his three personal fouls in this game certainly attest to that. But if there was ever an opponent where I think that Abu-Shamala's skills would matchup well it would be Northwestern. Against a slow down team that plays a zone, you don't want to turn the ball over and you want to be able to shoot over the zone. Shamala does both of these things well. Also Northwestern is one of the least athletic teams in the conference, so he would be less of a defenseive liability than in other games. Given the shooting percentages of the guards I think they should have found him more shots.

As for the defenisve end, there's really not a whole lot to criticize. Defending the three pointer is still a problem for this team (Northwestern shot 56%) but when you do everything else right and post a defensive efficiency of 86.6 you should win the game. The offense simply did not come through.

Wisconsin

Another very solid defenisve performance for naught as the Gophers came up two points short in this game. Once again I can not criticize the defense. Before the season started we must have heard this line about 100 times from Dan Monson, "We're going to score no doubt, but defense will be a concern." I was skeptical at the time, and it seems that I had ever reason to be. After early season games in which the Gopher defense looked a little suspect, it now appears that the defense may actually be better than last year's. In 2005 conference games the Gophers posted a defensive efficiency of 0.92. In two Big Ten games this year the Gophers have posted defensive efficiencies of .866 against Northwestern and .843 against Wisconsin. That's incredibly good.

The only problem is that the starting guards somehow managed to shoot even worse against Wisconsin than they did against the Wildcats. If you'd ask me if that was possible I'd say no, but here it is: Grier 6-18, Boone 2-9, Hargrow 4-13. I'd tell Grier to pass the ball, but right now I really don't know who he should pass it to. Tollackson shot 0-2 in the game and Coleman shot 2-8. G.B. tells me the problem with this offense is that the simply are not working together at all. No one is creating shots for anyone which leads to a ton of bad shots. Looks that way to me from the box score. This game must have been incredibly ugly. I'm glad I missed it.

This game would have been completely out of hand if Rico Tucker hadn't actually decided to show up. He scored 17 points on 5-9 shooting only turning it over twice. I'd be happy to eat crow and have Tucker play this way every game, but I doubt it will happen.

There is some good news though. Apparently former Golden Gopher and Australian NBL All-Star Dusty Rychart is reading our site. He offers the following endorsement: "Good Reading." Thanks for the plug.

I'll be back tomorrow with a preview of this weekend's matchup in West Lafyette.

Badgers 64, Gophers 62

2006-01-11T22:42:00.000-08:00

It's highly unlikely that a team who scores one field goal in the first 18 minutes of a game will go on to win the game. Yet the Gophers were dangerously close to pulling it off. Regardless, the Gophers now find themselves in a gigantic hole by starting the season with two home losses. I hate to give up hope now, but the chances of the Gophers making it back to the dance now seem to fall somewhere between slim and one-in-a-million.

But back to yesterday's game. A great defensive effort went for naught. The Gophers held the Badgers' efficient offense to a 84.9 OE% with the help of 22 turnovers. They also held the Badgers to a 45.2 eFG%. At the start of the game, the Gophers defense was getting it done with old-fashioined, stingy halfcourt defense. Then it became apparent that the offense couldn't get it done by itself, so the Gophers went to fullcourt pressure to force some turnovers and it gave the Badgers fits.

Amazingly (at least to us), the Gophers started their comeback from a 25-6 deficit when who else but Rico Tucker entered the game. While Tucker's shot selection continues to baffle me, there's nothing you can take away from Tucker's performance last night. He brought the team to an entirely different level defensively and scored a very efficient 17 points on nine field goal attempts. While Tucker played extremely well, it will take a couple of solid games in a row before I decide to eat crow and jump on the Tucker bandwagon. But if the Gophers decide to adopt a style geared more toward pressure defense, it just doesn't make a lot of sense to have Jamal Abu-Shamala on the court, as much as it pains me to say it.

The superstars from both teams, on the other hand, had terribly inefficient nights. Alando Tucker scored 22 points on 23 field goal attempts and Vince Grier scored 17 on 18 attempts. In these first two Big Ten games, it's become apparent that Grier, at times, is trying to do too much. In both games he had more shot attempts than points.

Grier also took the shot when the Gophers were down three with 15 seconds remaining. To think that nothing better could have been developed during a Bo Ryan timeout while the Badgers were at the line is proposterous. Whether it was Grier's decision to take a leaning three with about 11 seconds left on the clock, or just a poorly designed play by the Gophers' coaching staff, end-of-game execution has been one of my biggest complaints during the Dan Monson era. In this situation, everyone in the building knows Grier is going to put up a shot. I would have either liked to see the Gophers try to get something quick to the basket or at least work to attempt an somewhat open 3-pointer. Too much to ask? Maybe.

Grier's unwillingness or possibly inability to pass, is hurting this offense. This is not to say that the Gophers don't need Grier to carry a heavy portion of the scoring load - they do. However, I was hoping the games the Gophers played without Grier would have given the team, Grier and the coaching staff more confidence in other options. Apparently not. And this is only one of the problems on offense.

The big men simply aren't producing. To me it seems like a combination of the big guys' offensive ineptitude and the lack of opportunities for them to establish their presence. Yesterday, Spencer Tollackson and Dan Coleman went a combined 2 for 10 from the floor. J'son Stamper went 2 for 2, but could only stay in the game for 16 minutes before fouling out. Coleman was limited to 14 minutes, in part because of foul trouble.

What's more troubling is the Gophers' inability to rip down offensive rebounds, which was big strength early in the season. The Gophers has a 16.7 Oreb% yesterday and 14.3 Oreb% against Northwestern, when they were without Stamper.

While yesterdays game was quite exciting, it was also frustrating. To see the team come back from such a big hole, only to lose the game at the end was tough to swallow. This means the Gophers are going to have to go at least 9-5 during the rest of their schedule to have a prayer of making the tournament. This means the Gophers must win on the road at least three times, providing they protect homecourt, and Illinois, Indiana and Michigan State have yet to come to town. Pretty tough to feel good about the Gophers chances while looking at that schedule.

Wildcats 57, Gophers 49; Wisconsin Game Preview

2006-01-10T22:11:00.000-08:00

I wanted to write about this game once I got settled down about it, but I came to the realization that this loss is going to sting for a long while.

Where can I start? I can't find a single thing that the Gophers did well in this game. But I think the worst part was the Gophers' complete unwillingness to disrupt the Wildcats' style of play. This was a 63 possession game, and this number was likely inflated by the Gophers' (well, mainly Vince Grier's) torrent of quick shots near the end of the game. Playing slow and limiting the number of possessions in the game is Northwestern's M.O., and for whatever reason, the Gophers did nothing to put the tempo in their favor.

You have to credit Northwestern's defense. They held the Gophers to a 74.5 offensive efficiency rating. They took away Grier's penetration and wouldn't allow the Gophers any post up opportunities. But when you're playing against against a zone defense, you either have to shoot your way out of it, or move the ball quickly enough to get baskets closer to the rim. The Gophers weren't shooting well and haven't shown the ability to get it done the other way. My guess is that teams will take note of how the Wildcats shut us down, and while probably not using the same attack, try to shut the Gophers down in a similar way.

But when it comes to changing the tempo, the Gophers needed to do it on defense by forcing turnovers. For most of the game, they allowed the Wildcats to keep the ball near the timeline and then once the shot clock started to run down, the Wildcats attacked, and most of the time, some defensive breakdown led to a good look for Northwestern. While the Gophers did force 14 turnovers, which is a decent amount in a game of that pace, most of them came after the game was already out of reach.

Three-point defense continues to be an area of concern for the Gophers, as Jeff Shelman astutely noted in today's Star Tribune. As we've said before on this blog, this could be a big problem for the Gophers' defense, as they now rank last in the Big Ten in 3-point percentage against, after allowing the Wildcats to shoot 9-16 from outside. On the other hand, the Gophers took over half (26 of 51) of their shots from three. Which can't be a good sign, especially when you only make nine of them.

Yes, some Gophers may have been ill for this game - Spencer Tollackson looked like he had aged about 10 years in the last week - but its tough to make any kind of excuse for this type of performance.

The Gophers have the tall order of having to rebound against Wisconsin tonight in the Barn. I hate to be calling a game a must-win this early in the season, but in the all-important 16-game conference schedule, it's probably not that far from the truth. It took a Superman-like performance by Vince Grier to beat the Badgers at home last season, and I'm willing to bet that Bo Ryan won't allow that to happen to his team again.

The Badgers (12-2, 2-0) have defeated tough opponents Iowa and Michigan State already this season, but both of those victories came at the Kohl Center, where Ryan is 33-1 in conference games since becoming the Badgers' head coach.

In order for the Gophers to win this game, they will have to defend Minneapolis native Kammron Taylor better than the Spartans, who allowed him 27 points on 17 shot attempts. He went 5-8 from outside and is shooting 47.1 percent on threes for the year.

It also doesn't get much easier for the Gophers offense, as the Badgers adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 90.6 ranks right behind the Gophers', good for 42nd in the nation. The Gophers also have the task of shutting down the Badgers' offense, who's adjusted offensive efficiency ranks 14th in the nation.

The only somewhat positive way that I can think of to look at the Northwestern game - aside from chalking the loss up to the flu bug, which is more of an excuse - is that the Wildcats are simply a tough matchup for the Gophers. They have now lost four straight to Northwestern. The mistake-free style of play that Bill Carmody instills in his team works well against the Gophers' often sloppy execution. The fact is that in a low-possession game, mistakes get magnified, as they did on Saturday.

Let's hope the Gophers can bounce back and get a big win. There should be a large number of red shirts in the crowd, as I'm guessing Wisconsin is still on winter break, so that should provide for a great atmosphere. The Gophers need this victory badly, but with the way the Badgers have been playing, I don't think it's going to happen.

Prediction:
Badgers 67, Gophers 63

Illinois, Gopher Outlook, Predictions

2006-01-06T22:07:00.000-08:00

I will continue down the beaten path and give our preview of Illinois, followed by the big questions for the Gophers and conclude with our humble predictions for how the Big Ten will shake out.

Illinois Fighting Illini (15-0, 1-0 in Big Ten, RPI 7)
Offensive efficiency: 111.0 (4th in Big Ten, 18th in nation)
Defensive efficiency: 82.1 (2nd in Big Ten, 6th in nation)

Key Wins: at North Carolina (68-64), Michigan State (60-50)
No losses

(stats through Jan. 4)
Starters:
G Dee Brown, Sr. 14 g, 32.9 mpg, 14.2 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 5.6 apg, 1.6 spg, 2.9 topg, 0.99 ppws, 46.4 eFG%
G Rich McBride, Jr. 14 g, 28.6 mpg, 9.5 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 2.4 apg, 1.0 spg, 1.4 topg, 1.12 ppws, 55.2 eFG%
F Brian Randle, Jr. 13 g, 24.7 mpg, 8.5 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 1.5 apg, 0.8 spg, 1.8 topg, 1.10 ppws, 55.4 eFG%
F James Augustine, Sr. 14 g, 31.1 mpg, 14.4 ppg, 9.4 rpg, 2.0 apg, 1.5 spg, 2.1 topg, 1.31 ppws, 63.9 eFG%
F Shaun Pruitt, So. 14 g, 19.3 mpg, 5.7 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 0.4 apg, 0.6 spg, 1.2 topg, 1.03 ppws, 51.6 eFG%

Key Subs:
G Jamar Smith, Fr. 14 g, 20.0 mpg, 10.2 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 1.6 apg, 0.4 spg, 1.5 topg, 1.55 ppws, 78 eFG%
G Chester Frazier, Fr. 9 g, 16.3 mpg, 1.2 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 3.1 apg, 0.4 spg, 0.6 topg, 0.49 ppws, 19.4 eFG%
F Marcus Arnold, Sr. 14 g, 14.3 mpg, 4.9 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 0 apg, 0.3 spg, 0.7 topg, 0.97 ppws, 48.4 eFG%
F Warren Carter, Jr. 14 g, 12.6 mpg, 5.8 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 0.4 apg, 0.2 spg, 0.7 topg, 0.98 ppws, 45.8 eFG%

I would be in awe of this defense if Iowa wasn't around. Wait, I still am. The Illini are second in the conference in both eFG% against and defensive rebound percentage. They also force turnovers more often then everybody except Northwestern and Minnesota. While their offseason schedule wasn't the strongest that anyone has put together, the defense proved itself last night against one of the nation's best offenses in Michigan State, holding them to a 87.1 eFG%. Illini fans have nothing to worry about on this end of the court.

The big question for Illinois, is whether their offense can continue to play well enough to win. With this defense, the offense doesn't have to be outstanding, like it was last year. The truth is though, that Brown and Augustine don't have much help. Brown has proven that he can create shots for others, but one man can only do so much. When it got to the tough possessions in last night game down the stretch, the Illini appeared to have trouble getting a decent shot.

If Rich McBride doesn't hit the prayer before nearly falling into Bruce Weber's lap (yes I'm exagerating a little), Michigan State has a decent shot to tie or win the game. However, I'm pretty sure the Illini defense would have made that difficult.

I predict a lot of close games and a lot of close wins for the Illini. The defense will have them in everygame, and I think Brown, while he doesn't score all that efficiently, will push the offense over the top with his speed and ability to create shots for others.

There are a few key players that I believe will factor into Illinois success or failure. The first is McBride. Will he become a solid third option in the starting lineup during the Big Ten season. If Weber opts to play scoring specialist (because he doesn't do much else) Jamar Smith less, either McBride or Randle is going to have to step up. Also, if pass-first freshman guard Chester Frazier somehow learns to score (efficiently let's hope with those shooting percentages), he could become a real asset to this team. He records almost six assists for every turnover he commits.

The Gophers play the Illini twice. This is probably the worst matchup for them, as Illinois stingy defense will make life miserable for their already mediocre offense. Forget about a win in Champaign and the possibility of winning the game at the Barn is slim.

Minnesota has nobody who can stick with Dee Brown, with the possible exception of Rico Tucker. If Tucker is on the court for a significant chunk of minutes against this defense, there probably won't be a single shred of hair left on my head (or Grant Peterson's, which does not bode well for him as he needs all the hair he has left). But that's enough speculating about a doomsday situation. We'll just have to wait and see what happens.

The nets will probably grow cobwebs during this weekend matchup of Illinois and Iowa.

Now the time has finally come for the Gophers Preview. Let's start with the stats, just like we did with the rest.

Minnesota Golden Gophers (9-2, RPI 78)
Offensive Efficiency: 102.1 (8th Big Ten, 93rd Overall)
Defensive Efficiency: 87.4 (3rd Big Ten, 33rd Overall)

Key Wins: Alabama-Birmingham (69-68), at Arizona State (85-79)
Key Losses: Gardner-Webb (72-73), at Maryland (66-83)

Starters:
G Adam Boone, Sr. 11 g, 36.5 mpg, 12.1 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 5.7 apg, 2.1 spg, 3.1 topg, 1.07 ppws, 48.6 eFG%
G Maurice Hargrow, Sr. 7 g, 32.7 mpg, 17.3 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 4.0 apg, 1.9 spg, 3.6 topg, 1.18 ppws, 56.8 eFG%
G/F Vincent Grier, Sr. 5 g, 35.0 mpg, 18.6 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 3.2 apg, 3.8 spg, 3.8 topg, 1.20 ppws, 55.4 eFG%
F J'son Stamper, Sr. 9 g, 26.9 mpg, 6.8 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 1.6 apg, 1.3 spg, 1.6 topg, 0.92 ppws, 43.2 eFG%
C Spencer Tollackson, So. 11 g, 26.5 mpg, 11.4 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 1.9 apg, 0.9 spg, 2.5 topg, 1.10 ppws, 54.3 eFG%

Key Subs:
F Dan Coleman, So. 10 g, 27.5 mpg, 12.6 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 0.8 apg, 0.7 spg, 1.2 topg, 1.07 ppw, 48.5 eFG%
G Rico Tucker, So. 7 g, 18.7 mpg, 5.3 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 2.3 apg, 2.3 spg, 2.6 topg, 0.76 ppws, 29.5 eFG%
C Jon Williams, Fr. 10 g, 10.7 mpg, 1.7 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 0.5 apg, 0.3 apg, 0.4 topg, 1.28 ppws, 75.0 eFG%
G Jamal Abu-Shamala, Fr. 10 g, 19.6 mpg, 6.4 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 0.7 apg, 0.4 spg, 0.7 topg, 1.53 ppws, 76.3 eFG%

Let's dig a little deeper and go into key team offensive and defensive stats for the Gophers.

eFG%: 51.8 (9 Big Ten, 85 nation) TO%: 22.3 (10, 189) Oreb%: 37.7 (3, 55)
DeFG%: 47.5 (7, 106) TO%: 26.0 (1, 23) Dreb%: 71.4 (5, 50)

Now let's examine the key questions looming around the Gophers this season.

Will Boone, Grier and Hargrow be able to play these kind of minutes in Big Ten games and still be effective?

We will have to see, but I am skeptical. The Gophers rebounding has not been as good in recent games as it had been at the beginning season. You could link this to fatigue, but there's no sure answer as to why this has happened. It doesn't appear that Dan Monson has confidence in either Tucker or Abu-Shamala to play solid minutes as backups at the guard position, even though both have gotten a chance to see extended time on the floor. By all indications, it looks like he's going to ride the triad of Boone, Grier and Hargrow as far as it will take him.

Will Grier be able to regain some outside shooting ability?

While Grier only shot 25 percent on threes last year, he hasn't made a three in five games this year. In fact, he's only attempted two. I don't think Grier will ever be an efficient 3-point shooter, but it could be a problem for the Gophers offense if Grier's man doesn't have to go outside to defend him. It's something to keep an eye on.

Will Boone work out as the team's point guard?

Boone isn't a model point guard by any means, but I'm feeling fairly confident that he will be able to hold down the position this season. He's been better than expected on offense. On defense, his lack of quickness is always going to be a liability, and Monson would be wise to put Hargrow and Grier on quicker guards. If this happens, the Gophers may be able to hide Boone against most teams, except for against ultra-quick backcourts like Michigan State.

Will there be enough help inside?

This is perhaps the biggest question looming above the heads of the Gophers. Tollackson has played far beyond anyone's expectations during the non-conference schedule and it will be interesting to see if that continues in conference play. Coleman has also been effective this year, but he's been streaky. For the Gophers to succeed offensively this season, these two need to get points around the basket, because no other big men can score inside. Stamper is a monster on the boards and a strong and versitile defender, but can't be counted on to score. Williams looks like he'll be able to hold his own on defense, but everyone knows he has no offensive ability to speak of. The inside play of Coleman and Tollackson could be the difference between a six win season and a 10 win season.

Are turnovers the Gophers best friend or worst enemy?

Mainly their best friend, but the offense must hold on to the ball to keep the Gophers in games. This team is going to force turnovers on defense no matter who they are playing. The offense needs to assure that this will be an area where the team will always have the advantage.

How does this team compare to last years?

These teams are very similar. Let's take our best look at who has stepped in for who. Boone has replaced Aaron Robinson, Tollackson has basically taken Jeff Hagen's role, and Hargrow has stepped into the starting lineup in place of Brent Lawsons. In my mind, this has amounted to a more versatile and balanced offense, but a less tenacious defense. This isn't necessarily a good or bad thing.

Last year's team was able to pick up a few close victories on its way to a 10 win Big Ten season. They were fortunate enough to play at Michigan right after they lost Daniel Horton, won two close games against Ohio State and were fortunate enought to play Illinois once. So yeah, the Gophers had a little luck on their side last season.

And believe it or not, the Gophers have luck on their side again this season, in the form of a soft schedule. They play the teams pretty much everyone is picking as the top two - Illinois and Michigan - only once, both at home. The Gophers also Ohio State only on the road, but only see Penn State once. All things considered, this is one of the softest schedules in the conference. But the conference is much improved. It's also possible that this Gophers team has improved, through everything they've been through already this season.

The only thing left to do is wait and see, and throw ourselves to the fire by trying to predict the future.

Big Ten Predictions

1. Illinois. Defense is unbelievable and offense is good enough for second straight title.
2. Michigan State. Shaky defense and tough schedule (Purdue, Penn St. and Northwestern once! You have to be kidding me!) make it difficult to chose them to finish first.
3. Indiana. Too much talent to go any lower.
4. Iowa. The offense has to pick up eventually, doesn't it?
5. Ohio State. Lots of seniors, shooters. Can the shooting keep pace?
6. Wisconsin. Do you really expect a Bo Ryan-led team to finish any worse?
7. Minnesota. Defense should give them a chance to win most games.
8. Michigan. They deserve to be better than eighth, but who are you going to move down?
9. Northwestern. Big dropoff here. Best hope is NIT
10. Penn State. Could challenge Northwestern for ninth, but probably not.
11. Purdue. Poor Matt Painter.

So there you have it. It should be stated that no team will run away with the conference like Illinois did last year. Nobody is that dominant. I wouldn't be suprised to see a tie for the title, between two or even three teams. As far as I'm concerned, teams four through eight could finish anywhere in those positions. We just had to take our best guess.

So the time has finally come for the opener against Northwestern at the Barn tommorow. For a preview of Northwestern, refer back to part I of our Big Ten Preview. The Wildcats will be missing second-leading scorer Mohamed Hichad and it looks like flu bug is being passes around the Gophers team.

Since I'm the only one in the country at this time, it looks like I will be forced to make the prediction:

Gophers 63, Wildcats 55

-Grant Boelter

Big Ten Preview Part Three

2006-01-05T13:16:00.000-08:00

The last week has been crazy, and the Big Ten preview kind of got lost in the shuffle. But no worries (I hope), we will finish our run down of Big Ten with the final four teams.

Also, we both need to recant the statement we made after the Gopher football teams loss to Virginia in the Music City Bowl. Because the University and Glen Mason somehow reached a contract agreement, the Gophers future of making it to no-name bowl games is safe. We felt, had he not been signed, the program was doomed to go from a slightly above average with a killer running game to below average without any identity, as it was pre-Mason. It's not that we think that Mason is an elite coach, but we're fairly certain that he is better than who we were going to get to replace him.

But let's get back to something we like to think we know something about. On with the preview.

Michigan Wolverines (10-2, 0-1 Big Ten, RPI 55)
Offensive Efficiency:109.7 (5th in Big Ten, 27th in nation)
Defensive Efficiency:90.8(7th in Big Ten, 85th in nation)

Key Wins: @Notre Dame (71-67), Butler (78-74)
Key Loss: UCLA (61-68)

Starters (stats through 12/30):
G Daniel Horton, Sr. 10 g, 33.4 mpg, 14.4 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 5.5 apg, 1.9 spg, 2.6 topg, 1.22 ppws, 57.7 efg%
G Dion Harris, Jr. 10 g, 29.8 mpg, 10.1 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 3.1 apg, 1.1 spg, 1.1 topg, 1.11 ppws, 54 efg%
F Graham Brown, Sr. 10 g, 24.9 mpg, 5.1 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 1.1 apg, 0.9 spg, 1.7 topg, 1.32 ppws, 65.6 efg%
F Lester Abram, Sr. 10 g, 30.5 mpg, 12.0 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 1.3 apg, 1.0 spg, 1.6 topg, 1.30 ppws, 61.2 efg%
F Courtney Sims, Jr. 10 g, 26.6 mpg, 15.6 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 0.4 apg, 0.4 spg, 2.6 topg, 1.38 ppws, 68.1 efg%

Key Subs:
F Chris Hunter, Sr. 10 g, 17.6 mpg, 7.2 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 0.6 apg, 0.8 spg, 1.6 topg, 1.19 ppws, 54.3 efg%
G Jerret Smith, Fr. 9 g, 14.6 mpg, 2.3 ppg, 0.9 rpg, 2.6 apg, 0.2 spg, 1.7 topg, 1.12 ppws, 43.3 efg%
G Ron Coleman, So. 10 g, 13.1 mpg, 3.9 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 0.4 apg, 0.3 spg, 0.3 topg, 0.82 ppws, 34.1 efg%

Michigan, while indeed playing against an admittedly easy schedule (SOS: 139), has been a model offense in terms of what I will call the shooting metrics. Michigan ranks 3rd in the nation in PPWS, and each member of their top seven has a PPWS of 1.11 or above. They have been quite good from the field as their 56.7eFG% ranks 14th in the nation. You have to go all the way to their eight man (Ron Coleman) to find a player that could be termed an inefficient shooter.

This across the board efficiency has meant that Michigan has had the most balanced offensive attack in the Big Ten so far with four starters averaging double digits in scoring. Not a bad problem to have since opponents will not have one player to key the defense on.

The drag on the offense has been a 21.6 TO% (6th Big Ten, 131st nationally) and a 33.8 Oreb% (126th nationally). Neither number is particulary troublesome for a team shooting so well, but the key to defending Michigan is clearly causing turnovers. This is something that Minnesota is good at and they will need to do so to limit Michigan's shots as they shoot at a high percentage.. Minnesota is not particularly good defending field goals either.

Is this offense for real? Well, in the Wolverines lone loss, UCLA was able to force 18 turnovers (26.1 TO%), but also held Michigan to just 42% from the field. It's only one game, but this does raise the question of whether or not Michigan can keep up the hot shooting against tough competition. It's also worth noting that last year with largely the same cast of characters Michigan was 172nd in the country in eFG%.

On defense, Michigan has rebounded very well (26th nationally) and defended from the field decently (4th Big Ten, 85th nationally), but they just haven't force many turnovers (8th and 201st). I expect this trend to continue as Michigan likes to play back on defense and not gamble for steals.

When you add up all these details you have a good offense coupled with a mediocre defense and a team that has not really been tested. Minnesota plays Michigan twice this season and a win at home is a must. Being that the Gophers will probably need to steal one or two games on the road, this should be a prime target. Minnesota should be able to force Michigan into some turnovers and provided they don't shoot lights out against us. I think we have a legitimate chance to sweep the Wolverines.

Wisconsin Badgers (10-2, RPI 7)
Offensive Efficiency: 109.7, (5th in Big Ten, 27th in nation)
Defensive Efficiency: 93.6, (8th in Big Ten, 103rd in nation)

Key Wins: vs. Old Dominion (84-81), Wisconsin-Milwaukee (74-68)
Key Losses: at Wake Forest (88-91), at Pittsburgh (64-73)

Starters:
G Kammron Taylor, Jr. 12 g, 33.3 mpg, 14.5 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 2.3 apg, 1.0 spg, 2.7 topg, 1.18 ppws, 53.6 eFG%
F Alando Tucker, Sr. 12 g, 32.2 mpg, 18.2 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 1.8 apg, 0.4 spg, 2.2 topg, 0.99 ppws, 47.7 eFG%
F Ray Nixon, Sr. 12 g, 20.9 ppg, 5.8 ppg, 1.3 rpg, 1.7 apg, 0.3 spg, 0.6 topg, 1.24 ppws, 62.3 eFG%
F/C Jason Chappell, Sr. 12 g, 22.0 mpg, 6.8 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 2.1 apg, 0.6 spg, 1.1 topg, 1.14 ppws, 51.8 eFG%
F/C Brian Butch, So. 12 g, 25.6 mpg, 11.6 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 1.9 apg, 0.8 spg, 1.6 topg, 1.22 ppws, 58.3 eFG%

Key Subs:
G Michael Flowers, So. 12 g, 24.8 mpg, 6.3 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 2.3 apg, 1.7 spg, 1.5 topg, 1.15 ppws, 53.8 eFG%
F Marcus Landry, Fr. 12 g, 15.5 mpg, 6.7 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 1.4 apg, 0.3 spg, 1.3 topg, 1.08 ppws, 49.2 eFG%
C Greg Stiemsma, So. 12 g, 11.6 mpg, 3.2 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 0.8 apg, 0.2 spg, 0.5 topg, 1.3 bpg, 1.11 ppws, 56.3 eFG%
G Joe Krabbenhoft, Fr. 12 g, 10.9 mpg, 2.7 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 0.7 apg, 0.2 spg, 0.7 topg, 0.96 ppws, 37.5 eFG%

In looking at Wisconsin, this team looks unspectacular, but solid. As Bo Ryan's team's often aren't flashy, nothing on the Badgers rap sheet particularly pops out.

One of the main forces driving Wisconsin's offense is they don't commit turnovers. Their 17.8 turnover percentage ranks first in the Big Ten and 12th in nation. While the Badgers shoot moderately well from the field (52.5 eFG%, 6th Big Ten, 67th nation), anyone who has watched the Badgers this year will tell you that their offense isn't exactly something that would strike fear in the oppenents. The Badgers inability to create shots for both themselves and others - they average 15.0 apg, which is good for 10th in the Big Ten - should definately be seen as a problem. The team's offensive limitations have likely put a little too much pressure on Tucker to score, as he's averaging a below-average 0.99 PPWS.

On defense, the Badgers haven't done anything particularly well or poorly. They rank near the middle of the pack of in the conference in basically every category. Although they rank seventh in the Big Ten with a turnover percentage of 21.4, it's only good for 203rd in the nation.

While they've played a non-conference schedule full of proven mid-major powers (Old Dominion, Pepperdine, UNC-Wilmington, UW-Milwaukee), they're 1-2 vs. major conference opponents, with the win coming at home vs. Marquette. However, it's tough to knock a team that's lost on the road to Wake Forest and Pittsburgh.

Perhaps the most important development for the Badgers is the emergence of Brian Butch as an option down low. If you would have told me last year that this would be the case, I would have been more than skeptical. The thing that sticks out to me is Butch's team leading rebounding percentage of 15.4, good for 14th in the conference. This shows me that Butch is playing stronger than I had expected. He's also scoring efficiently and in double figures.

But wait. It seems that Butch has also hit a scoring slump as of late, only scoring in double figures in two of the last seven games. It's hard to say whether Butch can keep scoring in double figures against more physical Big Ten competition. This will likely be one of the keys to the Badgers success in the conference.

The Gophers get the Badgers twice this year, with the first meeting coming at home Jan. 10. Once again, I see this home game as a must win for the Gophers, as the Badgers seem quite beatable this season. I would like to say the Gophers have a chance to beat the Badgers at the Kohl Center, but then I would be forced to look up the last time the Gophers won there, which certainly hasn't happened during the Dan Monson era. I'm sorry, but I just can't think that optimistically.

Big Ten opener: Today vs. Iowa

Ohio State Buckeys (10-0, RPI 9)
Offensive Efficiency: 112.7 (3rd in Big Ten, 12th in nation)
Defensive Efficiency: 91.8 (5th in Big Ten, 74th in nation)

Key wins: at St. Joseph's (81-74), vs. Iowa State (70-67)
Key losses: none

Starters:
G Jamar Butler, So. 9 g, 29.6 mpg, 9.1 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 4.7 apg, 1.1 spg, 1.8 topg, 1.34 ppws, 61.5 eFG%
G Je'Kel Foster, Sr. 10 g, 32.7 mpg, 16.8 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 2.4 apg, 2.7 spg, 2.7 topg, 1.70 ppws, 81.4 eFG%
G J.J. Sullinger, Sr. 10 g, 29.1 mpg, 9.7 ppg, 7.9 rpg, 2.2 apg, 0.8 spg, 2.2 topg, 1.11 ppws, 53.5 eFG%
F Matt Sylvester, Sr. 10 g, 22.1 mpg, 6.1 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 2.5 apg, 0.3 spg, 1.6 topg, 0.87 ppws, 40.2 eFG%
F/C Terence Dials, Sr. 10 g, 29.2 mpg, 14.7 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 0.6 apg, 0.8 spg, 2.0 topg, 1.18 ppws, 54.9 eFG%

Key Subs:
F Ron Lewis, Jr. 10 g, 25.5 mpg, 12.4 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 1.4 apg, 0.7 spg, 2.3 topg, 1.21 ppws, 50.0 eFG%
G Sylvester Mayes, Jr. 10 g, 17.5 mpg, 6.1 ppg, 1.2 rpg, 2.1 apg, 1.2 spg, 1.0 topg, 1.15 ppws, 56.1 eFG%
C Matt Terwilliger, So. 9 g, 11.7 mpg, 2.7 ppg, 1.4 rpg, 0.4 apg, 0.3 spg, 0.3 topg, 1.08 ppws, 57.9 eFG%

For a team that starts four seniors and enters conference play 10-0, this year's Buckeyes are surrounded by a lot of questions. The first and foremost, as Big Ten Wonk's John Gasaway has said many times already, is can the Buckeyes continue their hot shooting?

As a team, the Buckeyes are shooting 42.9 percent from 3-point land, behind only Indiana and San Diego. They also rank eighth in the nation in eFG%, at 57.2 percent. They have one of the hottest hands in the land in Foster (81.4 eFG%, 56.9 3FG%). In light of this, let's take a moment to examine the performance of Ohio St.'s 3-point-shooter compared to last season.

2005 2006
Foster 42.8 56.9
Lewis 33.6 ('04) 28.1
Sullinger 44.6 44.4
Butler 23.0 48.5

So while Lewis and Sullinger have held steady, Butler and Foster are shooting well above last year's marks. Can they continue to shoot at the current clip? Probably not. But they will likely continue to shoot at respectable levels. However, the team is going to have a rough go of things, if the shooting goes south as Dials is their only true inside threat. They rank third in the Big Ten as 32 percent of their points come from behind the arch. Even more, only 44.7 of Ohio St.'s points come from 2-point shots, good for 309th in the nation. But they also get to the line a ton as the Big Ten by scoring 23.2 percent of their points from the stripe.

This baffles me. How can a perimeter oriented team go to the line so often? A 73.7 free-throw percentage (3rd in Big Ten, 34th in nation) probably helps this number a little, but regardless they still shoot a lot of free-throws. I'm looking for someone to explain this to me, so feel free to comment.

I'd talk more about Ohio St.'s defense, but they are pretty much mediocre in every aspect. Feel free to head over to kenpom.com to check out what they do.

Another issue for the Buckeyes is their schedule. The best team they've played is Iowa St. The other major conference teams they have beaten are Virginia Tech and Louisiana St.

The Gophers play the Buckeyes once on the road. With the way the Gophers are defending the three this year, its going to be a tough one to win. I felt the Gophers had luck on their side in last year's sweep of the Buckeyes, as Ohio St. didn't shoot particularly well in either game. Let's hope the luck strikes again.

Big Ten Opener: Today vs. Penn State

I'll be back tommorow with a preview of last year's Big Ten Champion, the Gophers preview and our predictions for the Big Ten. Since most teams have started play or start play today, I will let you in our prediction for the champion a little early. Yes, we are standing by the Illini. Too many questions surround Michigan State.

Speaking of the these two teams, they meet tomorrow in Champaign in an early showdown of contenders. I'm not saying other teams won't compete for the title (Indiana, Iowa, Ohio State?), but these two teams look like the teams to beat right now.

-Grant Boelter and Grant Peterson

Oral Roberts Game Preview

2005-12-30T23:36:00.000-08:00

Posting when you're on vacation is tough. Therefore, for the Oral Roberts preview, I'm only going as far to give an uneducated (maybe) guess for the score of the game:

Gophers 75, Golden Eagles 63.

Happy New Year.

-By the way, for anyone is interested in Gopher Football, you have seen the beginning of the end. The Gophers' next .500 season won't happen for about 10 years.

-Grant Peterson

Big Ten Preview Part Two

2005-12-28T18:13:00.000-08:00

As Grant said yesterday, it's going to be very important for the Gophers to sweep the five games with the three teams he profiled yesterday. The teams that are projected by most to finish in the top eight in the Big Ten are bound to be brutally competative barring injuries and suspensions (ala Daniel Horton and Pierre Pierce last season). If the Gophers do sweep the bottom, they will need to win 5 out of 11 games with the rest.

That being said, we'll continue by profiling three of the "big boys" in the second part of our series.

Iowa Hawkeys (10-3, RPI 36)
Offensive efficiency 95.5 (10th in Big Ten, 186th in nation)
Defensive efficiency 78.1 (1st in Big Ten, 2nd in nation)
Key wins: vs. Kentucky (67-63), vs. N.C. State (45-42)
Key losses: vs. Texas (59-68), at Northern Iowa (63-67), at Iowa State (60-72)

Starters
G Jeff Horner, Sr. 9 g, 33.4 mpg, 12.0 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 6.4 apg, 1.6 spg, 2.7 topg, 0.99 ppws, 42.0 eFG%
G Mike Henderson, Jr. 13 g, 27.8 mpg, 8.0 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 2.1 apg, 1.4 spg, 2.4 topg, 1.07 ppws, 44.7 eFG%
G Adam Haluska, Sr. 13 g, 34.2 mpg, 13.9 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 2.9 apg, 1.5 spg, 1.5 topg, 1.05 ppws, 47.7 eFG%
F Greg Brunner, Sr. 13 g, 31.9 mpg, 14.7 ppg, 10.0 rpg, 1.8 apg, 0.7 spg, 2.5 topg, 1.07 ppws, 47.0 eFG%
C Erek Hansen, Sr. 13 g, 19.5 mpg, 6.2 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 0.2 apg, 0.5 spg, 2.5 bpg, 1.5 topg, 1.12 ppws, 54.0 eFG%

Key Subs
G Tony Freeman, Fr. 13 g, 20.5 mpg, 4.7 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 2.4 apg, 0.7 spg, 2.3 topg, 0.95 ppws, 47.5 eFG%
F Doug Thomas, Sr. 13 g, 16.7 mpg, 4.8 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 0.2 apg, 0.8 spg, 1.2 bpg, 1.5 topg, 1.03 ppws, 54 eFG%
F Alex Thompson, So. 13 g, 14.1 mpg, 3.2 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 0.5 apg, 0.3 spg, 1.0 topg, 0.74 ppws, 36.3 eFG%
G Carlton Reed, So. 10 g, 11.6 mpg, 2.8 ppg, 1.3 rpg, 0.7 apg, 0.6 spg, 0.8 topg, 0.70 ppws, 31.4 eFG%

Defense. Defense. Defense. Coach Steve Alford has his crew absolutely stifling opponents. The Hawkeyes are allowing opponents a riduculous 40.6 percent eFG%, good for sixth in the nation. They are also second only to the Gophers in the Big Ten with a 23.9 TO%. The Hawkeys have been in the middle of the pack when it comes to rebounding, but Greg Brunner has been a monster on the boards, compiling a 16.6 percent of the total rebounds, while he was in the game, through Dec. 20.

Where the Hawkeyes have been unbelievable on defense, they have been sub-par offensively. Their 46.7 team eFG% is good for last in the Big Ten and only Purdue and Minnesota have turned the ball over more than Iowa. Where has Iowa's offense gone? Look to Horner and Huluska. Horner's 3-point percentage is down to 29.4 percent from last year's 40.8 percent mark. Huluska's outside shooting is also down as he is shooting 32 percent from beyond the arch this year, down from last year's mark of 38.9 percent.

If these two guys get hot and the defense continues as it is, the Big Ten better look out. The fact is, allowing 0.78 points per possesion in one game would be deemed a great defensive game. Iowa is averaging this number for the whole season folks.

While Iowa lost to two of its three in-state rivals, it should be noted that Northern Iowa (10) and Iowa State (16) rank in the top 20 in the RPI. Horner has been injured for the past four games, including the game at Iowa State, but it looks like he will make his return Dec. 30 at St. Louis.

The Gophers face Iowa twice this season in what are sure to be hard fought defensive games, which might look quite ugly at times. It would be nice to see the Gophs at least protect home court against the Hawks. Winning in Iowa City Jan. 18 will be difficult.

Remaining non-conference schedule:
12/30: @ St. Louis

Big Ten opener:
1/5: @ Wisconsin

Indiana Hoosiers (7-2, RPI 26)
Offensive efficiency 114.1 (1st in Big Ten, 3rd in nation)
Defensive efficiency 88.5 (3rd in Big Ten, 43rd in nation)
Key wins: vs. Kentucky (79-53), at Charlotte (71-54)
Key losses: Duke (67-75), at Indiana St. (67-72)

Starters
G Marshall Strickland, Sr. 9 g, 33.0 mpg, 12.9 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 2.6 apg, 1.1 spg, 1.1 topg, 1.39 ppws, 66.2 eFG%
G Robert Vaden, So. 9 g, 33.3 mpg, 14.1 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 5.0 apg, 1.7 spg, 3.6 topg, 1.23 ppws, 59.7 eFG%
G Lewis Monroe, Sr. 9 g, 28.0 mpg, 5.1 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 3.6 apg, 0.1 spg, 1.9 topg, 1.12 ppws, 50.o eFG%
F Marco Killingsworth, Sr. 9 g, 29.1 mpg, 20.6 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 2.7 apg, 0.6 spg, 4.4 topg, 1.32 ppws, 67.1 eFG%
F D.J. White, So. 2 g, 14.0 mpg, 7.0 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 0.5 apg, 1.0 bpg, 1.5 topg, 0.83 ppws, 43.8 eFG%

Key Subs
G A.J. Ratliff, So. 6 g, 14.0 mpg, 4.3 ppg, 1.2 rpg, 0.7 apg, 0.2 spg, 0.5 topg, 1.05 ppws, 45.2 eFG%
G Roderick Wilmont, Sr. 8 g, 16.0 mpg, 7.1 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 0.8 apg, 1.3 spg, 0.4 topg, 1.24 ppws, 61.6 eFG%
G Errek Suhr, Jr. 9 g, 15.9 mpg, 5.1 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 1.0 apg, 0.3 spg, 0.3 topg, 1.68 ppws, 85.4 eFG%
C Ben Allen, Fr. 9 g, 11.6 mpg, 6.2 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 0.6 apg, 0.2 spg, 0.9 topg, 1.56 ppws, 80.3 eFG%
G Earl Calloway, Sr. 8 g, 16.6 mpg, 4.4 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 2.4 apg, 0.9 spg, 1.8 topg, 1.12 ppw, 50.0 eFG%

What Iowa has done defensively, Indiana has done offensively. What fuels the Hoosiers' offense? Marco Killingsworth and 3-point shooting. Indiana is both first in the nation in eFG% (62.5) and 3-point percentage (48 percent). Five Hoosiers are shooting above 40 percent from long range: Allen (68.8), Suhr (57.9), Strickland (55.6), Vaden (45.2) and Wilmont (40.7). The only knock against Indiana offensively is their second-to-last offensive rebound percentage of 28.9.

The Hoosiers' 3rd ranked defense centers on not allowing the opponent to get offensive rebounds. Their Big Ten best 75.0 defensive rebound percentage ranks eighth in the nation. They also have only allowed opponents a 45.7 eFG%, which ranks third in the conference.

Indiana also plays the fastest games in the Big Ten, averaging 71.6 possessions per game. They are also second, behind only Illinois, in efficiency margin as they are averaging .25 more points per possession than their opponents. They have also played most of the non-conference season without star F D.J. White, who is gradually returning from a broken foot.

Can we expect Indiana's hot shooting to continue to shoot at such a rate? Probably not. However, they have proven that their offense is an efficient machine that's a force to be reckoned with. The only way opponents have beaten the Hoosiers so far is to contain their offense as they've had an efficiency of 90.3 vs. Duke and 88.6 against Indiana St. Duke forced Indiana to turn the ball over 19 times and Indiana St. forced them to give it away 22 times.

Once White returns to full strength, this team will be scary. Killingsworth coming and Bracey Wright going has been nothing but beneficial for the Hoosiers. Fortunately the Gophers play Indiana only once, at the Barn Jan. 29. What to watch for in this match up: The Gophers ability to defend the 3-point shot and if the Gophers can force enough turnovers to stall the Hoosiers' offense. They must do this while keeping White and Killingsworth in check. Sounds easy enough. Or not. Let's just be thankful that the Gophers don't have to travel to Bloomington.

Remaining non-conference schedule:
12/31 @ Ball St.

Big Ten opener:
1/3 Michigan

Michigan State (11-2, RPI 17)
Offensive efficiency 114.3 (1st in Big Ten, 4th in nation)
Defensive efficiency 102.9 (11th in Big Ten, 250th in nation)
Key wins: vs. Arizona (74-71), vs. Boston College (77-70), vs. Wichita St. (83-64)
Key losses: at Hawaii (62-84), vs. Gonzaga (106-109)

Starters
G Drew Neitzel, So. 13 g, 31.2 mpg, 9.2 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 5.6 apg, 0.8 spg, 2.4 topg, 1.23 ppws, 58.0 eFG%
G Maurice Ager, Sr. 13 g, 34.4 mpg, 21.8 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 3.3 apg, 0.8 spg, 2.8 topg, 1.19 ppws, 55.3 eFG%
G Shannon Brown, Jr. 13 g, 34.0 mpg, 17.3 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 3.1 apg, 1.8 spg, 2.4 topg, 1.25 ppws, 57.6 eFG%
F Marquise Gray, So. 13 g, 13.9 mpg, 4.0 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 0.5 apg, 0.3 spg, 0.8 topg, 1.02 ppws, 53.8 eFG%
C Paul Davis, Sr. 13 g, 13 g, 31.2 mpg, 20.2 ppg, 9.8 rpg, 1.6 apg, 0.9 spg, 2.1 topg, 1.40 ppws, 64.5 eFG%

Key Subs
F Matt Trannon, Sr. 13 g, 16.5 mpg, 3.7 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 1.5 apg, 1.0 spg, 0.3 topg, 1.14 ppws, 58.8 eFG%
C Goran Suton, So. 13 g, 19.2 mpg, 4.3 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 0.6 apg, 0.6 spg, 1.1 topg, 1.05 ppws, 48.9 eFG%
G Travis Walton, Fr. 13 g, 19.4 mpg, 1.7 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 2.9 apg, 0.8 spg, 1.5 topg, 0.77 ppws, 27.3 eFG%

If the Spartans only had to play on one end of the court, I would be ready to punch their ticket to the Final Four right now. Unfortunately for them, Coach Tom Izzo has plenty to work out on the defensive end.

What's going wrong for the Spartans on defense? Everything. Some might wonder if the Spartans are guarding anyone, as they rank last in the Big Ten in both eFG% against and turnover percentage. They also rank eighth in defensive rebound percentage. Maybe the loss of lockdown defenders, most notably Allen Anderson, is hurting the Spartans more than people anticipated.

This lack of defense has forced the Spartans to simply outscore their opponents, which they've been able to do in most games. Poor defense is also the reason the Spartans rank eighth in the conference, right behind the Gophers, in efficiency margin, only ahead of the likely three bottom feeders that Grant profiled earlier.

Michigan State is undoubtably one of the most talented, if not the most talented team in the Big Ten. The scoring trio of Davis, Brown and Ager is without a doubt the most fearsome trio in the conference. However, the defense needs to see a significant improvement if they want to make good on the lofty expectations that have been set before them.

In another fortunate scheduling break, the Gophers only see Izzo's squad once this year, at the Barn Feb. 11. If the game becomes a matter of who can outscore who, the Gophers are sure to lose. If the Gophers can slow down Michigan State's potent offense, they might have a chance. As for a plan for stopping the Spartans' balanced scoring attack, I'll leave that to Coach Monson and his staff.

Remaining non-conference schedule:
12/31 Coppin St.

Big Ten opener
1/5 at Illinois (mark this one on your calendar)

Grant and I will be back sometime tommorow with a preview of the remaining four teams, as well as a preview for Saturday's game against Oral Roberts.

-Grant Boelter

Big Ten Preview Part Two

2005-12-28T08:37:00.000-08:00

As I've been working on this preview, I've realized that it's a little more work than I thought it would be. Therefore, the second section of the Big Ten Preview will have to wait until this evening.

In the meantime, check out this interesting piece on Wisconsin coach Bo Ryan's use of points per possession statistics. This might be one of the many reasons Ryan's teams consistently find themselves in the top half of the Big Ten, regardless of who they return from the year before. The article even gives a shout out to one of our favorite bloggers, Big Ten Wonk's John Gasaway. It's always nice to see people in the mainstream media give credit where credit is due.

-Grant Boelter

Big Ten Preview Part One

2005-12-27T08:04:00.000-08:00

Today is part one of a three part series examining the other ten teams in the Big Ten. Next week we will recap the Gophers’ non-conference season and give our fearless predictions for all 11 teams.

Purdue Boilermakers (5-4, RPI 193)
Offensive Efficiency 92.1 (9th in Big Ten, 174th in nation)
Defensive Efficiency 99.9 (10th in Big Ten 201st in nation)

Starters
G Bryant Dillon Sr. 9 G, 29.0 MPG, 5.1 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 2.1 APG, 0.4 SPG, 2.6 TOPG, 1.14 PPWS, 51.5 eFG%
G Korey Spates Fr. 8 G, 28.1 MPG, 10.5 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 1.9 APG, 0.9 SPG, 3.3 TOPG, 0.92 PPWS, 40.9 eFG%
G Chris Lutz Fr. 9 G, 27.4 MPG, 12.1 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 1.3 APG, 1.0 SPG, 3.1 TOPG, 1.12 PPWS, 53.4 EFG%
F Nate Kiefer Sr. 9 G, 24.0 MPG, 9.2 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 1.8 APG, 0.7 SPG, 1.3 TOPG, 1.06 PPWS, 52.2 eFG%
F Nate Minnoy Fr. 9 G, 29.0 MPG, 12.4 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 2.3 APG 1.1 SPG, 3.1 TOPG, 1.13 PPWS, 58.1
eFG%

Key Subs
F Gary Ware Sr. 7G, 13.0 MPG, 4.9 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 0.7 APG, 0.1 SPG, 1.0 TOPG, 1.56 PPWS, 73.7 eFG%
G Marcus Green Fr. 9 G, 17.7 MPG, 5.2 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 1.0 APG, 0.6 SPG, 1.9 TOPG, 0.99 PPWS, 42.9 eFG%
G Chris Hartley Sr. 9G, 12.4 MPG,1.9 PPG, 1.3 RPG, 1.3 APG, 0.1 SPG, 0.6 TOPG, 1.23 PPWS, 50.0 eFG%

The Boilermakers were supposed to return their top two scorers from last season in Carl Landry, who finished second in the Big Ten in scoring, and David Teague. Landry had off season knee surgery, and after playing in only four games decided to take a medical redshirt. In the meantime Teague was lost to an ACL injury in the opening week of the season, and so Boiler fans are left with this rag tag bunch. A lot of freshmen and a bunch of seniors who aren’t very good.
In compiling a 5-4 record, Purdue’s best victory was against South Alabama (8-2, RPI 139) at home in the second game of the season. In that game, however, they still had Carl Landry who poured in 35 points. After that game, Landry was a non-factor and Purdue had an abysmal 3 game losing streak where they were blown out by Xavier and Florida State, and then lost on the road to Evansville. Throw in a road loss to Loyola and a couple of home wins against teams with RPIs of 250+ and you’ve got the Boilermakers season so far.
If you take a gander at the numbers you will notice that these guys love to turn it over. Your eyes don’t deceive you as Purdue has a 27.1 TO% which ranks 314th out of 334 in Division I. That’s to be expected when you start three freshmen, and they have certainly helped the cause (Minnoy 3.1, Spates 3.3, Lutz 3.1).

These turnovers have been the most important factor in helping Purdue play at a tempo of 72.0 possessions per game which has been the fastest in the Big Ten. That’s bad news for a inexperienced and undermanned team, and head coach Matt Painter would do well to slow the tempo if he wants to give this squad any chance to be in some games in the Big Ten.
On the defensive end, Purdue has played poor field goal defense and hasn’t forced too many turnovers. Their eFG% defense ranks 252nd in the nation at 52.0% and they are only forcing turnovers on 21.9% of their opponents’ possessions. These numbers look even worse given a schedule that ranks 242nd in the country according to the RPI.

While Purdue has been able to rebound the ball fairly well, led by Kiefer and Minnoy, not much else is going right for this team. With a lack of experience and talent the Boilermakers simply do not have the time to right the ship before conference play. It looks like a long season for Matt Painter’s bunch, and the prognosis is definitely a finish in the bottom 2 of the Big Ten.
Minnesota plays a home and home with Purdue this season and anything short of two victories will be a disaster.

Remaining non-conference schedule:
12/28: Tennessee-Martin
12/30: @Memphis (this is going to be ugly)

Big Ten Opener:
01/04: @Northwestern

Penn St. Nittany Lions (6-3, RPI 118)
Offensive Efficiency 105.0 (7th in Big Ten, 73rd in nation)
Defensive Efficiency 96.5 (9th in Big Ten, 149th in nation)

Starters
G David Jackson Jr. 9 G, 33.2 MPG, 8.7 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 3.4 APG, 0.8 SPG, 1.9 TOPG, 1.08 PPWS, 49.2 eFG%
G Ben Luber Jr. 8 G, 29.6 MPG, 9.1 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 5.5 APG, 1.0 SPG, 2.4 TOPG, 1.19 PPWS, 58.6 eFG%
G Geary Claxton So. 9 G, 30.1 MPG, 14.7 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 1.7 APG, 0.8 SPG, 2.7 TOPG, 0.96 PPWS, 46.2 eFG%
F Jamelle Cornley Fr. 9 G, 25.9 MPG, 12.2 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 1.3 APG, 0.9 SPG, 1.6 TOPG, 1.21 PPWS, 58.4 eFG%
F Travis Parker Sr. 9 G, 24.1 MPG, 10.6 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 1.8 APG, 1.2 SPG, 1.8 TOPG, 1.11 PPWS, 52.8 eFG%

Key Subs
G Mike Walker So 9 G, 19.4 MPG, 5.8 PPG, 1.8 RPG, 3.2 APG, 1.2 SPG, 0.7 TOPG, 1.01 PPWS, 50.0 eFG%
F Milos Bogetic Fr. 9 G, 14.6 MPG, 5.4 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 0.6 APG, 0.3 SPG, 1.1 TOPG, 1.00 PPWS, 42.1 eFG%
F Brandon Hassell So, 9 G, 13.4 MPG, 2.1 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 0.2 APG, 0.3 SPG, 1.3 TOPG, 0.91 PPWS, 35.3 eFG%

Penn State, the perennial Big Ten doormat, has at least held its own on offense so far this season. Sure they’ve only played the 142nd ranked schedule in the nation, but at least their offense is holding its own at 7th in the Big Ten and 73rd overall. They’ve maintained this offense by being solid but unspectacular in three main areas: 51.8 eFG% (88th), 19.6 TO% (58th), 36.7 OReb% (75th). It’s also worth noting that Penn State does not shoot many three pointers or free throws. They are essentially a two point jumpshooting team scoring 58.5% of their points on two point shots. These numbers have not been posted against great competition. While a 60-55 road loss at Texas A&M is certainly a bright spot, the best victory for Penn State has been an 80-64 home victory over LIU-Brooklyn (3-4 RPI 217).

As you can see above they’ve been lead in scoring by sophomore guard Geary Claxton. Claxton, however, is dragging down team efficiency numbers scoring only 0.96 PPWS and shooting 46.2 eFG%. He is pulling down 6.6 rebounds though. While it can be certainly argued the Claxton needs to shoot less it may the case that Claxton taking this many shots is allowing his teammates to be more efficient. Junior G Ben Luber has been the team’s best player so far. He is chipping in only 9.1 PPG, but he is doing so efficiently and is distributing the ball (5.5 APG). F Jamelle Cornley has been the team’s most efficient scorer (1.21 PPWS) as a freshman. While the starters have been quite good on offense, Penn State is not deep, and their bench has done much to drag down the overall numbers. None of the three players who see significant minutes has been efficient at all despite playing a limited role.

On defense Penn State has been burned from the outside giving up 36.0% of its points on the three point shot, this percentage is 14th in the country. While this is something that the Golden Gophers’ will likely not be able to exploit, Penn State has also been lax on the offensive glass giving failing to board 33.2% of their opponents misses. This is an area that Minnesota can exploit and will probably be a big factor in their game this season.

Minnesota gets Penn State just once this season when they travel to Happy Valley on Feb. 8. A victory there shouldn’t be difficult, but is a must.

Remaining non-conference schedule:
12/28: IUPUI-Fort Wayne
12/31: Mount St. Mary’s

Big Ten Opener
01/05: @Ohio State

Northwestern Wildcats (6-4, RPI 104)
Offensive Efficiency: 92.1 (11th in Big Ten, 219th in nation)
Defensive Efficiency: 93.7 (7th in Big Ten, 108th in nation)

Starters
G Tim Doyle, Sr. 10 G, 31.8 MPG, 9.2 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 4.9 APG, 1.4 SPG, 2.8 TOPG, 1.22 PPWS, 56.6 eFG%
G Mohammed Hachad Sr. 10 G, 27.7 MPG, 9.8 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 1.6 APG, 1.8 SPG, 2.5 TOPG, 1.12 PPWS, 54.6 eFG%
G Craig Moore Fr. 10 G, 19.5 MPG, 4.6 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 2.1 APG, 0.4 SPG, 0.3 TOPG, 1.00 PPWS, 48.9 eFG%
F Bernard Cote Sr. 10 G, 11.4 MPG, 2.6 PPG, 1.4 RPG, 0.4 APG, 0.2 SPG, 0.9 TOPG, 0.82 PPWS, 38.5 eFG%
F Vedran Vukusic Sr. 10 G, 37.4 MPG, 21.7 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 1.1 APG, 1.4 SPG, 1.9 TOPG, 1.28 PPWS, 60.6 eFG%

Key Subs
C Vince Scott Jr. 10 G, 25.9 MPG, 4.6 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 1.9 APG, 0.5 SPG, 0.7 TOPG, 0.86 PPWS, 40.6 eFG%
G/F Sterling Williams 10 G, 13.3 MPG, 1.8 MPG, 1.5 RPG, 0.8 APG, 0.9 SPG, 0.5 TOPG, 0.65 PPWS, 26.1 eFG%

While Northwestern has essentially treaded water like Penn State, they’ve done it in an opposite fashion posting a defense that is a respectable 7th in the Big Ten, while playing horrendous offense. Like a typical Princeton offense they’ve done a decent job of protecting the basketball turning it over only 19.9% (65th) of the time. The culprit has been poor shooting (49.0 eFG%) and a complete inability to grab offensive rebounds as their 19.5 OReb% ranks 329th in the country.

When I first looked at their individuals on offense I could figure out why they were so bad as a whole. Their top three, Big Ten leading scoring Vikusic, Hachad, and Doyle are quite efficient, but beyond that there is no help. As it turns out, if the Wildcats were able to rebound their own misses at even NCAA median levels I estimate this would increase their offensive output a full 5.5 points per 100 possessions. At their pace that would be about 3 points per game which is quite significant. Just goes to show that you can take offensive rebounding for granted, but it really does have a positive effect on offense if you can grab them.

Their defense which has at least been solid is unspectacular in all areas. They’ve allowed a 47.1 eFG% against which is 92nd in the nation. On the defensive end their rebounding has been passable at 69.2% (113th). They don’t force a lot of turnovers as they rank 172nd in the nation in that department. Basically if the Gophers want to defeat them in their two meeting they must do what other teams have done and deny them offensive boards. In previous seasons Minnesota has struggled against Northwestern in this area and with the Wildcats playing at the slowest pace in the Big Ten, if you don’t secure the ball, you may not see it for a while.

Minnesota plays a home and home with Northwestern giving the Golden Gophers 5 games against what should be the bottom three teams in the Big Ten this season. A perfect 5-0 is a must if Minnesota hopes to reach the 10 conference wins that I think it will need to advance to the NCAA tournament

Remaining non-conference games:
01/01: Northern Colorado
02/11: IUPUI-Fort Wayne

Big Ten Opener:
01/04: Purdue

That does it for the bottom three of the Big Ten. Grant Boelter will check in tomorrow with four more teams from among the “Big Boys” tomorrow.

-Grant Peterson

Gophers 80, Jackrabbits 61

2005-12-26T08:40:00.000-08:00

G.P. made some more progress toward being renamed "The Oracle", as he was right on predicting the Gophers would win by 19. Two more points from both squads and he's perfect on his prediction.

Other than that, I must say this contest was ugly and uneventful. As Grant mentioned in his preview, the Jackrabbits aren't a good basketball team. Both teams combined for 40 turnovers (Jackrabbits 24, Gophers 16) which caused this game to be played at faster pace (74 possessions) than to which the Gophers are accustomed. SDSU's 24 turnovers kept them near their offensive efficiency for the season as they posted an 82.7 rating. While the Gophers posted a 56.3 eFG%, said amount of turnovers kept their offensive efficiency rating at an modestly effictive 107.7.

From my humble subjective viewpoint, this was the worst team the Gophers have played this season. There wasn't one aspect of the Jackrabbits' attack that was particularly impressive, as their team statistics will also tell you. This gives them no shot at competing against major conference competition. I was much more impressed with North Dakota State's effort against the Gophers, as the two are comparable because they are both relatively new to the Division I scene. The Bison are 5-7 so far, but haven't played the kind of schedule that their neighbors to the south have. Jackrabbits' coach Scott Nagy may suggest that my opinion was skewed by an uncharacteristically bad performance from his squad, but judging by the statistics, it looks like this wasn't the first time his team looked like this.

Spencer Tollackson had another nice game, scoring 22 points on a 10 for 14 shooting night from the field. Through 10 games, Tollackson has the following line:

26.0 mpg, 11.7 ppg, 57.1 eFG%, 1.15 PPWS, 6.1 rpg, 1.9 apg, 2.4 TO/g, 1.0 spg, 0.9 bgp

I'm ready to see the beast unleashed against Big Ten opponents. There is no doubt that he won't be able to put these exact numbers up during the conference schedule, as low and mid-major conference opponents don't usually boast a wealth of skilled big men. Also, the rate at which Tollackson is turning the ball over is a reason for concern. However, Tollackson's shooting has signficantly improved from last season and the two Grants aren't the only ones that think Spencie looks leaner and meaner this season. According to college basketball everywhere-man Jeff Shelman, the Gophers' staff attributes much of Tollackson's improvement to a willingness to get to the line. It's no suprise that Tollackson didn't want to be seen at the stripe last year as he made only six of his 24 free-throw attempts. While he's improved his stroke this year, he's still been a big reason for the Gophers' free-throw shooting woesn as he's shot 21 of 38 (55.3 percent) from the line. Either way, Tollackson has definately become more aggressive this year, which is usually a good thing for a big man (Dan Coleman take note).

While we're on the topic of free-throw shooting, the Gophers had a perfect night from the line Friday. Too bad it came on only nine attempts. This marked the first game since their Nov. 30 meeting with Maryland where the Gophers went to the line less than the opponent as the Jackrabbits went 8 of 10 from the line.

I can't help but laugh at G.P.'s comparison of Jamal Abu-Shamala to the Jackrabbits' Andy Kleinjan. The two had eerily similar statlines Friday.

Abu-Shamala: 22 mins, 7 pts, 2-3 fgs, 1-2 3 fgs, 4 rebs, 2 asts, 1 stl, 0 TOs
Kleinjan: 20 mins, 8 pts, 3-4 fgs, 2-2 3 fgs, 3 rebs, 3 asts, 1 stl, 0 TOs

Creepy. Fortunately, the two look nothing like each other, as Kleinjan bears a more striking resemblance to former Gopher Steve "Sunshine" Esselink.

It's become apparent that Abu-Shamala and Rico Tucker will have to battle for playing time this season as long as Moe Hargrow, Vince Grier and Adam Boone are all in the lineup. I get the idea that the coaching staff will give Tucker every chance to succeed or fail, because they want someone to be able to back-up Boone without having to move Hargrow to the point guard position. Tucker likely helped his cause Friday, dishing out four assists and capturing three steals, while turning the ball over once. These statistics will likely factor more into the coaches' decisions when it comes to playing time rather than his shooting, as he went 3 for 9 from the field and 0 for 4 from 3-point land Friday. Tucker's eFG% for the season now stands at 31.9 percent and he is averaging 0.81 PPWS. This makes it fairly easy for Gopher Hoops to stand behind Abu-Shamala for our choice as to who should see more playing time.

The Gophers compiled a ridiculous 27 assists Friday, with Boone accounting for 12 of them. While the definition of the assist is somewhat open for interpretation, I find it hard to believe that the Gophers recorded assists on 27 of 33 made field goals. That, coupled with the fact that former Gopher Kevin Burleson, target of much loathing by guys named Grant, often found himself near the top of the Big Ten in assists, might be enough evidence to launch an investigation into the Gophers' bookkeeping practices.

As I was browsing midmajority.com earlier today, I was suprised to see that the Gophers were shooting 37.7 percent from the 3-point line, good for 73rd in the nation. However, this number is only good for eighth in the Big Ten. What's troubling is the Gophers were allowing opponents to shoot 38.9 percent on threes through Dec. 18, good for 10th in the conference. We'll see if this is a problem when the time comes.

Speaking of the conference schedule, we will examine the competition throughout the next three days, with predictions soon to follow. This should give our small, but astute audience something to chew on while waiting for the Dec. 31 showdown with Oral Roberts.

-Grant Boelter

South Dakota State Preview

2005-12-23T00:02:00.000-08:00

The Minnesota Golden Gophers (7-2) will look to notch their sixth straight victory when they take on South Dakota State (3-8) tonight at 7 p.m. in Williams Arena. The Golden Gophers will once again play without their full roster as Vincent Grier has been suspended for an unknown violation of team policy and J’son Stamper is likely out with a knee injury.

The Jackrabbits of Brookings, SD are an independent in their first season as a full Division I program after a good run as a Division II school in the North Central Conference. Head Coach Scott Nagy is in his eleventh season at the school and has a record of 220-77 (.741) in his previous ten seasons. During that time he was NCC Coach of the Year five times, while leading his team to four conference championships and one North Central Region Championship. As with any program making such a big jump, the transition to big-time college hoops has not been easy. SDSU finished 10-18 last season and are currently ranked 233 in the RPI according to kenpom.com.

Behind this lowly RPI ranking is a mediocre defense and a terrible offense. South Dakota State ranks 288th in adjusted offensive efficiency at 88.8 points per 100 possessions and 168th in adjusted defensive efficiency giving up 99.2 points per 100 possessions. In order to be that bad on offense you have to do multiple things poorly, and the Jackrabbits certainly fit that mold. Their team effective field goal percentage of 43.6 ranks 299th, while their turnover rate of 28.0 % ranks an abominable 321 out of 337 Division I teams.

While they’ve certainly turned it over plenty, they’ve also created quite a few turnovers. SDSU’s defensive turnover rate of 24.5% ranks 73rd in the country just slightly behind Minnesota’s rate of 24.7%. They’ve been dragged down on defense, however, by an eFG% of 52.0 (256th) and a defensive rebound percentage of 62.7 (271st).

Starting Backcourt

The Jackrabbits are led on offense by 6’3” redshirt freshman guard Matt Cadwell. Cadwell, a former standout at Cretin Derham Hall, has averaged 16.2 points and 3.8 assists per game to lead the team in both categories. He has been especially deadly from beyond the three point arc hitting 46.8% (22-47) of his tries. This has helped contribute to a 54% eFG% and a healthy 1.18 PPWS. He has turned the ball over an average of 3.1 times a contest, but he has done so while playing 37.1 minutes per game as the team’s primary ball handler.

At the other guard is South Dakota State’s own version of Jamal Abu-Shamala, 6’0” junior guard Eric Heien. Strictly a practice player last season, Heien started this season on the end of the bench playing a total of 17 minutes while seeing action in four of the Jackrabbits first six games. After starting guard Steve Holdren went down for the season with an ACL injury in the Marquette game, Heien was thrown into a starting role against Wisconsin-Milwaukee. Since then he’s started in each of the last four games averaging 31.5 minutes a contest. Looking at his season numbers you will see a player who has performed eerily similar to our beloved Gopher walk-on.

Eric Heinen
9 G, 20.2 MPG, 1.9 REB, 1.8 A, 1.1 TO, 51.9 3FG% 1.48 PPWS, 71 eFG%

Jamal Abu-Shamala
8 G, 21.6 MPG, 3.3 REB, 0.6 A, 0.9 TO, 55.0 3FG% 1.51 PPWS, 75.7 eFG%

Scary. Incidentally, Star Tribune beat writer Jeff Shelman sent Abu-Shamala some well-deserved love in his game preview today. It also looks like Abu-Shamala will get his second start of the season tonight.

Starting Frontcourt

South Dakota State’s leading rebounder is 6’8” junior Mohammed Berte. The 215 pound native of Ivory Coast has pulled down 7.7 rebounds per game while being limited to 25.8 minutes due to foul trouble. In fact Berte has averaged 3.6 fouls per contest while fouling out four times. He is a limited player offensively as he averages 6.8 points per game while shooting 43.8% from the field. 53.8% free throw shooting contributes to a final number of only 0.93 PPWS. He is also rejecting 1.7 shots per game, but turns it over 2.1 times.

The leading scorer in the frontcourt is Ben Beran, a 6’7” 230 pound junior who might be the most inefficient player that I’ve profiled all season. While he scores 12.5 points per game and grabs 5.9 boards in 31.8 minutes, he does everything else he possibly can to hurt the team. He shares his teammate Berte’s foul happy style also averaging 3.6 fouls per game while fouling out four times. In scoring his 12.5 points he takes an inordinate amount of shots contributing to an eFG% of 42.4 and 0.89 PPWS. The real kicker however is the 4.5 TO he gives up each game which go along way towards this teams’ above mentioned turnover problems.

The third starting forward for the Jackrabbits is 6’7” 185 pound Andre Gilbert. Another Minnesota native, this time from Brooklyn Center, Gilbert pulls down 5.8 boards and scores 7.6 points per game, but like Beran, is horrible inefficient. He turns the ball over 3.4 times per game while logging and eFG% of 37.6 and 0.77 PPWS. I take back what I said about Beran, Gilbert might be worse.

Bench

The primary sixth man for Scott Nagy’s club is 6’6” junior forward Michael Loney. He has played in all 11 games this season averaging 7.0 points and 4.0 rebounds per game in 22.2 minutes. He has turned the ball over 1.9 times per game, but judging by his 1.05 PPWS and 49.2 eFG% it might be time to give him a little more playing time up front.

In the backcourt we may see guards Andy Kleinjan and Mackenzie Casey. They have played 12.4 and 11.3 minutes per game respectively and have managed to do a good job of torpedoing the offense when they’ve played. Casey has shot 5-26 from the floor this season while turning the ball over 1.3 times per game. Meanwhile Kleinjan has shot 4-28 from the field in his brief stints in the game.

I think the Gophers will have a tremendous advantage in the frontcourt in this contest even without J’son Stamper. While Minnesota will only have a marginal height advantage, the Jackrabbit frontline will be at a huge weight disadvantage against both Tollackson and Jonathan Williams. Even Dan Coleman is bigger than both Gilbert and Berte. I look for Tollackson to have another solid performance against a weak interior. On offense, South Dakota State would do well to look to their guards for scoring as both starters have been efficient. However, if the Gopher defense is going to respect SDSU on the outside they will need to establish something inside. I doubt they will be able to do so without turning the ball over at a tremendous rate.

My outlook for this game is almost exactly the same as the Grambling game. The Gophers need to stop the guards from shooting from the outside, but even if they don’t, it won’t matter. The Jackrabbits frontline is abysmal and should not be much of a factor.

The good news for Gopher fans is that this game, like the Grambling State game, will be an easy one. The bad news is that, like Grambling, South Dakota State is an opponent with 200+ RPI. A win against a team like that only hurts your own RPI as the Gophers tumbled from 80 to 91 after their most recent victory. It now appears that even with this win and a win over Oral Roberts, Minnesota’s RPI will be hovering in the high eighties at best come conference play. That’s an awful big hole to dig out of.

Prediction: Minnesota 82, South Dakota State 63

-Grant Peterson

Gophers 88, Tigers 64

2005-12-22T06:02:00.000-08:00

Well it was nice to see an old-fashioned blowout.

The Gophers were able to post a season high 126.0 offensive efficiency against the Tigers of Grambling, who did little to stop the Gophers attack, allowing the Gophers a sick 68.3 eFG%. The Gophers were able to do whatever they pleased as a number of times they threw lob passes to the rim for their big men or Vincent Grier for easy buckets. The Gophers also got a number of easy buckets against Grambling's ineffective full-court press.

However, this victory came at a price for the Gophers, as J'son Stamper left the game during the first half with a knee injury. The extent of the injury is unknown, but it looks like Stamper will sit out Friday against South Dakota State.

The game also marked the return of Jamal Abu-Shamala to the Gophers' rotation. This probably had a lot to do with the absence of Moe Hargrow, as he sat out because of a "violation of team policy." Vincent Grier will sit out Friday's game for the same violation.

But, back to the Gopher Hoops poster boy. Abu-Shamala made all five of his field goal attempts and finished with 13 points in 25 minutes. He did miss one free throw, but he has now made his last 11 field goal attempts, with his last miss coming Dec. 3 against Coastal Carolina. He has now raised his eFG% to 75.7 and his PPWS to 1.51. The fact that Monson brought him off the bench before Rico Tucker and played him more minutes might be a sign that he is considering giving Abu-Shamala a bigger role. I'm careful not to get too optimistic though.

Tucker was his usual, turnover-spewing self, racking up four in 19 minutes. This means Tucker is now averaging 3.2 turnovers while only playing 20 mpg. Tucker did however chip in six assists, snagged three steals and threw down a pretty spectacular dunk.

Spencer Tollackson looked like a man among boys against the Tigers, throwing in 17 points on 7 for 12 shooting. He also pulled down nine rebounds, seven coming on the offensive end. But he also committed four turnovers.

Grier led the team with 25 points in an efficient shooting performance (7-13 fgs, 11-13 fts). He also had five boards and six assists.

While Grier had a nice night at the line, the team continued its sub-par free-throw shooting, going 17 for 27 from the stripe. I'm starting to give up hope that this will ever improve.

John Gasaway over at Big Ten Wonk has now posted individual tempo-free statistics on his site. Get over and check these out often as they are the most useful tools for assessing individual performance.

-Grant Boelter

Grambling State Preview

2005-12-21T10:04:00.000-08:00

Finals week at the University of Minnesota concludes today and that means that the Golden Gophers will be back in action tonight at 7:00 PM against the Grambling State Tigers of the Southwest Athletic Conference. Grambling State is a historically black college that is famous, at least in the mainstream, for both its football program and its marching band. Basketball however is another story, and this is another of the many guarantee games (games in which the home team pays the away team) that Minnesota plays every year.

Grambling (2-3), led by head coach Larry Wright, have only playedfive games so far this season, two against a non-Division I opponents. They have lost all three Division I games on the road, 62-50 to Illinois State, 59-55 to Dayton, and 101-71 to Texas A&M. With an RPI of 235 according to midmajority.com, this appears to be a slam dunk for the Gophers. There's not a wholelot of good information out there on Grambling's team this season, but I'll try to say as much as I can.

Starting Backcourt

The Tigers are led by 6'2" senior guard Brion Rush. He currently leads the team in minutes (33.3), points per game (23.8), rebounds per game (7.0), steals per game (1.8) and turnovers per game (4.0). In other words look for him to touch the ball an awful lot.
While having to carry the load, Rush has been fairly efficient, but not outstanding. He checks in with a 1.12 PPWS and an eFG% of 52.6. He's done a lot of his damage from the outside where he has shot 14-38 (36.8%).

The other half of the starting backcourt is point guard 5"10" sophomore Andre Ratliff. He leads the team in assists at 3.3, but like Rush turns the ball over at a high rate (3.3/G). Like a lot of mid-major to small-major guards we've seen at the Barn this year, he shoots quite a bit, but doesn't make all that many. He is currently shooting 36.2 % from the field, but has hit at least a mediocre 11 for 33 three-point attempts. This adds up to an eFG% of 47.9 and 0.99 PPWS.

Starting Frontcourt

The starting frontcourt consists of 6'6" junior forward Anthony Williams, 6'5" senior Jamar Lewis, and 6'7" senior Martez Stevens. The biggest scoring threat of the three is Williams who averages 11.8 points per game while pulling down 6.0 rebounds in 27.5 minutes. His field goal percentage is okay at 47.6 %, but he's only hitting 5-11 on free throws to give him 1.0 PPWS. He's also turned it over 1.8 times per game contributing to the Tigers 258th ranked turnover percentage of 24.8.

The other two thirds of the frontcourt are not really threats to score as Lewis averages 3 points per game in 26 minutes and Stevens averages 2.0 in 18.3 minutes. They're not a threat to do a whole lot else either besides getting a few rebounds where they pull down 2 and 3.8 respectively.

Bench

After the starting five Grambling has about five players who could see anywhere between 10 and 20 minutes of playing time tonight. As far as I can tell, with an almost total lack of information on these players, they are all interchangeable parts that come in the game to soak up minutes and not much else.

Basically, Grambling is a program that is mired in the lower quartile of Division I, playing in what is traditionally a fifteen and sixteen seed conference, the SWAC. They turn the ball over, they don't shoot well, and they don't grab a lot of rebounds. In fact they're offense currently ranks at 317th in the country according to raw offensive efficiency. On defense they are not much better as their 262nd ranked defensive efficiency shows. The key for Minnesota tonight is to show up, play a solid game, don't let Brion Rush get hot and win by 20 points. Even if Rush does get hot, he likely won't have much help elsewhere. This should be easy.

Prediction: Minnesota 80, Grambling 60

-Grant Peterson

Stamp It

2005-12-20T10:24:00.000-08:00

It’s a time honored tradition in the mainstream media and now the not-so-mainstream media to write lengthy preseason previews of college basketball teams. Customarily these season previews are chalk full of questions that hope to capture exactly what needs to go right for Team X to win the conference title, or for team Y to make the NCAA tournament. These previews are full of phrases like: “Can lifelong role player step up and become a starter?”, “Will now sophomore point guard curb his proclivity for turning the ball over?”, “Can slashing forward improve his jumpshot so that opposing defenses can’t simply play off him?”.

For the Golden Gophers this season, one of these questions was the following: “Will J’son Stamper avoid foul trouble and play significant minutes?” This question was especially important given that Stamper’s frontcourt mates, Spencer Tollackson and Dan Coleman had a reputation for being soft on the glass. The thinking at the time was that Stamper needed to stay in the game if the Gophers were going to have a chance to hang against the more physical teams in the Big Ten. Let’s see how it’s worked out so far.

In eight games this season, Stamper has committed 25 fouls while playing 233 minutes for an average of one foul every 9.32 minutes. He has played an average of 29.1 minutes per game only fouling out in the season opener against NDSU. In his time on the court he has pulled down a team high 8.3 rebounds per game. This all sounds pretty good, but let’s see how it compares to his numbers from last season.

In 2004-2005 Stamper logged a total of 550 minutes while committing 81 fouls. This works out to one foul every 6.8 minutes. Partly because of this fact and partly because his role was more limited last season he averaged only 17.2 minutes per contest. Because of this he averaged only 4.8 rebounds per game despite the fact that in tempo free terms his 16.9% rebounding percentage was fourth best among returning players this year.

So it looks like a slam dunk. Stamper has been able to curb his enthusiasm for fouling and stay on the court long enough to pull down a bunch of rebounds while leading what has been surprisingly the fourteenth best offensive rebounding and the 52nd best defensive rebounding squad in the country. However I would like to temper this enthusiasm with some warning signs.

Minnesota has played a typically soft schedule (SOS: 141 according to Ken Pomeroy’s RPI numbers) through the first eight games of the season. Will Stamper be able to stay out of foul trouble when he’s playing in the Big Ten season against quicker and more athletic big men? It’s hard to answer this question and it seems like we are basically back where we started. What we can do however is look at the three games that the Gophers have played against “power conference” opponents.

@Maryland
25 minutes, 12 rebounds, 4 personal fouls
@Arizona State
35 minutes, 13 rebounds, 4 personal fouls
Vs. UAB
29 minutes, 10 rebounds, 4 personal fouls

What do we see here? What stands out is that against the toughest competition that the Gophers have faced this year, Stamper has pulled down a ton of boards. He’s grabbed down double digit rebounds in all three while averaging 11.67 per game. He’s averaged 29.7 minutes which is right in line with his average for the season, also a good sign. There’s something else though. He’s committed exactly 4 fouls in each game for an average of one foul every 7.42 minutes. That number looks a lot closer to his 04-05 number of 6.8 than his 05-06 9.32.

What can we conclude? From my point of view Stamper has marginally improved at limiting his fouls. That is, I think his number of one foul every 7.42 minutes is closer to his “true foul rate” than his overall one per 9.32 minutes. He’s doing enough though to keep himself on the court, and while he’s there he’s been exceptional on the glass. For the Big Ten season I think we will see much of the same, but against better competition there will undoubtedly be games where Stamper gets in early foul trouble. It will be interesting to see how the team reacts.

-Grant Peterson

Where are they now?

2005-12-19T00:03:00.000-08:00

This goes out to the people who have suffered and rejoiced through the past few years of Gopher basketball.

Wesley Washington. Basically the inspiration for this post. Now remember, this guy was suppose to save Gopher basketball (well, that might be a little bit of a stretch). Maybe the struggle to get this guy eligible to play for the Gophers was a complete farce. After seeing the man himself while the Beavers squared off against the Georgia Bulldogs on a late Saturday afternoon, we had to check on his status. After taking a glance at his stat line, it's amazing that this guy was ever a big deal. Keep in mind that the Beavers have played seven games to this point. Here's his line.

5 games, 5.2 mpg, 0.4 ppg.

I basically don't want to dig any further into this, because Wesley has made one shot this season. And this guy was expected to make a huge impact for the Gophers in 2003. It appeared, much like any prized recruit that the Gophers have ever had, that he fell right into their lap. Talk about much ado about nothing.

Stan Gaines. First of all, are we the only ones who think that he was orignally named Stu Gaines when he first came to the Gophers in for the 2002-03 season? While he could never have been thought of as a standout player who could carry a team, he was one of the lone bright spots in the completely dismal and Kris-Humphries-dominated season of 2003-04. From what I see, Gaines is providing a similar season for Seton Hall this year. Here's his line this year for the Pirates:

26.2 mpg, 6.4 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 51.2 eFG%, 1.11 PPWS, 2.3 asts/g, 2.1 TO/g, 0.9 stls/g, 2.7 fouls/g

I would like to say that we could use old Stu this season, but his role has basically been userped by J'son Stamper. Both get a good number of garbage points, but Gaines shoots more efficiently and Stamper is more dominant on the glass. Both foul and turn the ball over at ridiculous rates. The long and short of it is that having both of these guys on the court at the same time could scare the hell out of opposing teams, but it would likely make for some extremely ugly basketball, particularly considering how much the Gophers turn the ball over as it is. So basically, we wish Gaines good luck, but we found another monster.

Jeff Hagen. Where Dusty Rychart is the other Grant's favorite Gopher of all time, Hagen tops my list. While he is nearly 7-feet tall, Hagen just is not very athletic. However, he developed into one of the most technically sound players I have seen. While Vincent Grier carried much of the scoring load last season, the offense ran through Hagen. The former walk-on still has NBA hopes, playing for the NBDL's Austin Toros. Here's his line:

12.1 mpg, 2.9 ppg, 57.1 eFG%, 2.9 rpg, 0.57 TO/g, 3.0 f/g, 0.6 asts/g

Basically, efficient as ever, but Hagen is fouling like it's nobody's business, which I'm guessing can be a attributed to a lack of quickness. Maybe he can continue to become more athletic, maybe it's the end of the line for Hagen. Either way, I'll be interested to see what happens.

Kevin Burleson. As many of you probably know, this guy is actually on an NBA roster. I'm guessing most of you are completely as baffled as I am. Burleson essentially looks like the 12th man for Charlotte and has posted the following line thus far:

5 games, 6.6 mpg, 2.6 ppg, 1.2 asts/g, o.4 TO/g, 1.2 fouls/g, 5-11 fgs, 3-9 3fgs

Keep in mind that Bernie Bickerstaff is the head coach of the Bobcats, and Burleson played alongside his son, J.B., for a good chunk of his career with the Gophers. I don't want to outright attribute Burleson being on an NBA roster to a favor, but I believe there is a place for networking in the NBA. Are there not about 500 players of nearly equal ability that could fill out the last one or two spots on NBA roster?

Mitch Ohnstad. There are a couple of reasons I bring this name up. First of all, while he didn't attend the same high school as I did, he is from my hometown of Faribault, Minn. Second and far more importantly of course, he is the only Gopher - past present or future - that has been on the court with the two Grants (on seperate occasions). Grant Peterson had a 10-game string of victories alongside Ohnstad and another former Gopher, Miles Tarver on the courts in the University of Minnesota Rec Center. The last time I saw Ohnstad was during a three-on-three showdown in a Rec league game at the Faribault Community Center in summer 2003. Highlight of either story: Tarver picking up Peterson when he wanted to leave the team saying "I believe in you. Play strong." On a side note, no word on Tarver's status after being suspended for the 1999 NCAA tournament game vs. Gonzaga.

Aliou Kane. Once, thought of as a top 100 recruit, Kane amounted to basically nothing in his two-year career as a Gopher. After sitting out last season as a transfer, Kane began this season with the Texas Christian Horned Frogs. However, Kane left the team Dec. 7 for "personal reasons." Basically, our favorite thing about Kane is the similarity between his name and Ken's battle cry in Street Fighter II.

Students, I hope this post gives you some enjoyment while procrastinating studying for your finals. Non-students, I hope this at least gives you a laugh or a moment of Zen. The other Grant will be back with an equally ridiculous post tommorow. Then it's back to business with a preview of the Dec. 21 showdown with Grambling.

-Grant Boelter

Free JAS!

2005-12-16T10:50:00.000-08:00

My post is late today because I had a final this morning at eight o' clock and needed to get some rest. Having said that, let's get right to it. I want to play a little game I learned from reading Rob Neyer back when he was still writing baseball for free at ESPN.com. The game goes as follows, I give you two players statistical lines and then you try to guess who the players are. I can give you more and more clues to draw you toward the answer. So let's look at the following:

Gopher A: 21.1 M, 6.3 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 0.7 A, 0.4 S, 1.0 TO, 1.38 PPWS, 68.3 eFG%
Gopher B: 20.3 M, 5.5 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 1.5 A, 2.5 S, 3.0 TO, 0.73 PPWS, 26.1 eFG%

The first question I suppose is what player would you rather have. Gopher A is scoring slightly more points, but is doing it remarkably more efficiently than Gopher B. He is also pulling down more rebounds while turning the ball over less. On Gopher B's side he is contributing more assists and stealing the ball more. However, if you subtract turnovers from steals Gopher B has a net turnover deficit of 0.5 and Gopher A has a net turnover deficit of 0.6, nearly identical. One can argue that Gopher A's edge in rebounding is counteracted by B's edge in assists. So in the final analysis I think it all comes down to offensive efficiency where Gopher A has the edge by a huge margin. However, apparently Dan Monson doesn't see it that way.

In the game against UAB, Gopher B saw 14 minutes of action, while Gopher A didn't even see the court. Have you figured it out yet?

If not let me give you a few more clues. Gopher B is a sophomore who was a highly regarded point guard recruit from San Diego. Gopher A is a freshman who was not even offered a single Division I scholarship. By now I'm sure you've guessed that Gopher A is
Official Gopher Hoops Poster Boy Jamal Abu-Shamala, and Gopher B is Official Gopher Hoops Whipping Boy Rico Tucker.

Sample size issues abound in this analysis(Tucker has only played in four games so far), but did Uncle Rico really play any differently last year? Let's take a look at his stats from 2004-2005:

17.1 M, 5.8 PPG, 1.5 RPG, 1.84 A,1.44 S, 1.94 TO, 0.96 PPWS, 44.4 eFG%.

So I guess the answer is not really. Wherever Rico Tucker goes turnovers are sure to follow, both on the offensive and defensive end. He wasn't efficient on offense last year and he contributed a few assists and very few rebounds. In other words, so far the Gophers have gotten about what they should expect out of him.

Of course, he was just a freshman last year, but doesn't look like he's learned to take care of the ball at all, which is what one needs out of a back-up point guard.

When you look at Abu-Shamala's numbers you definitely need to point out that it's only seven games. One shouldn't read too much into seven games, but hasn't he done enough so far to warrant at least SOME PT. I think the answer is clearly yes. He is helping the team while Tucker is only hurting them. With the return of Grier and Hargrow the Gophers have plenty of players who can take the ball up the court and turn it over at a high rate . However, those other guys can actually score a little bit, and at a much higher efficiency.

What the Gophers don't have are any players that get it done on the offensive end with out taking a lot of shots. In fact if you look at the Big Ten leaders in PPWS you'll see that Abu-Shamala is 7th while the next Gopher is Moe Hargrow at 33rd (1.14). In other words, Jamal brings a skill to the table that no one else on the Gophers has while Rico Tucker brings all the negative aspects of many members on this team without many of the positive ones (ability to create turnovers notwithstanding).

Let the cause start right here and say it with me: Free Jamal Abu-Shamala!

-Grant Peterson

Gophers 69, Blazers 68

2005-12-14T21:23:00.000-08:00

Squeaky Johnson did just about everything right, but he couldn't quite finish.

With the Gophers clinging to a one-point lead with 7.3 seconds left, UAB's Johnson took the ball coast-to-coast and blew past Adam Boone, only to leave the game winner a tad short. Because I was so impressed with Johnson, I'm going to start off by giving his line for the game:

34 mins, 15 pts, 6-8 fgs, 3-3 3fgs, 5 rebs, 6 asts, 2 TOs

In the words of Larry David: Pretty good. Pretty, pretty, pretty good. His 15 points was a career high for the pass-first point guard, according to the UAB school Web site. He kind of reminded this blogger of a poor man's Steve Nash, and his 3-pointer to bring the Blazers within two was nearly indefensable from my point of view.

But enough gushing about Johnson. The Gophers got out to a hot start in this one, taking a 39-28 lead to the locker room at halftime. Perhaps not so coincidentally, the Blazers' leading scorer Demario Eddins sat for most of the first half because he missed a team bus. Regardless, the Gophers compiled a ridiculous 75.0 eFG%, shooting 15-24 from the field and 6-9 on threes. Eddins, by the way, scored 11 points, grabbed 5 rebounds and dished out four assists in 22 minutes.

Marvett McDonald continued his awful shooting ways (4-16 fgs, 4-11 3fgs), but converted a 4-point play with a little over a minute to play and hit a big three that tied the game at 68. Either way, this guy still shoots way too much and the Gophers did well to let the Blazers fire away from the outside as they went 5-19 from 3-point land before all of sudden hitting three straight at the end of the game to finish at a respectable 36 percent clip from behind the arch.

The other Grant was correct in predicting that the Blazers would force more turnovers, as they won the battle 18-11. The key to this Gophers win was shooting as, even though they cooled down considerably in the second half, they had an eFG% of 56.3, and allowed the Blazers a eFG% of 44.6. The Gophers once again made more free throws (15) than the opponent attempted (12).

However, they continued their mediocre shooting from the stripe, shooting 65 percent on 23 attemps, and Moe Hargrow and Boone went one of two on key trips to the line down the stretch. A gift from Eddins in the form of a mindless foul in the deep backcourt sent Hargrow to the line with 7.3 seconds left, where he missed the first and made the second. The funny thing is, while Eddins' play no doubt could be thrown into the boneheaded category (as could missing the team bus), two of my friends agreed that we felt less comfortable with Hargrow going to the line and the Blazers having a chance at the last bucket, which either says something about our collective confidence or the Gophers ability to cash in on free throw attempts and lock down on defense when it counts.

As the Blazers obviously were focused on shutting Vincent Grier down and limited him to eight shot attempts and 12 points, Hargrow picked up the slack scoring an efficient 20 points (8-13 fg, 2-6 3fg). Boone had a hot-shooting first half where he scored 14 points. He then went on to miss all of his 3-point attempts in the second (either three or four) and finished with 15 points on 4 of 8 shooting, with all of his attempts coming from 3-point land. He also added seven assists, but committed four turnovers. Dan Coleman came alive in the second, where he scored all of his 11 points (3-6 fgs, 5-6 fts).

The Gophers gathered 54.5 percent of the total rebounds, and held a slight edge on the percentages on each end of the court (34.6 to 32.5 Oreb%, 67.5 to 65.3 Dreb%). J'son Stamper continued to be a hulk on the glass (10 rebs, 1 Oreb) and Spencer Tollackson chipped in 8 boards (four on each end). Monson limited Tollackson to 18 minutes, presumably because of matchup problems with the quicker Blazers.

The game was also played at a Gopher-friendly pace with the Gophers getting 68 possessions to the Blazers 69. The Blazers, dubbing themselves the fastest 40 minutes in basketball, were averaging 75.6 possessions coming into the game, while the Gophers were averaging 69.6 when adjusted for their competition.

Rico Tucker had another disgusting performance, posting three turnovers and recording no assists in 14 minutes while shooting one for three and scoring two points. He very well could have had more turnovers as a couple of his passes bounced off a number of players before being recovered by the Gophers.

Tucker's stats for the past two games:

42 mins, 11 pts, 4-12 fgs, 4 rebs, 1 asts, 4 stls, 6 TOs

During the same stretch Jamal Abu-Shamala has played five minutes and didn't see the court last night. I'll leave it at that.

Random unimportant game notes:

Troy Hudson, or T-Hud to his loyal fans, was in attendance to cheer on his alma-mater UAB. He did however leave with about three minutes left and didn't see the Blazers furious attempt at a comeback.

When I predicted that the Barn would rock, I was way off. My guess is the snow and finals week for students had something to do with it.

Finally, I am extremely relieved that the Gophers were able to pull this one out. Any non-conference loss during the remainder of the schedule will put the Gophers in a gigantic hole if they wish to return to the tournament. The Gophers now have a week off for finals and will continue at home against Grambling Dec. 21. Should we hope that Uncle Rico bombs his tests?

-Grant Boelter

UAB Game Preview

2005-12-13T23:16:00.000-08:00

The Golden Gophers (5-2) will look to extend their three game winning streak Wednesday when they welcome the Blazers (4-2) from the University of Alabama-Birmingham to Williams Arena. Game time is set for 7 p.m.

Both teams are coming off Saturday victories as Minnesota won a hard-fought 72-67 win over UNLV, while UAB should be well-rested after cruising to a 81-59 home victory over Division I doormat Alcorn State. In addition to that victory UAB has notched a home win over South Carolina State (79-48) as well as a road victory at Nebraska and a pseudo-road victory over UMASS at Springfield, Massachusetts. Their two defeats have come at the hands of Depaul on the road (70-66) and perennial mid-major power Western Kentucky at home (92-76).

The Blazers are led by third year coach and former Nolan Richardson assistant Mike Anderson. Coming off a 22-11 season in which the Blazers advanced to the second round of the NCAA tournament, UAB, with three returning starters, was tabbed by conference coaches to finish second in the depleted Conference USA behind unanimous favorite Memphis. While the disappointing home loss to Western Kentucky and the emergence of Houston are both concerns, I see no reason why the Blazers can't live up to this potential and finish second in what will probably be at most a two-bid league this year.

Fans attending the game and watching on televisionWednesday night should see a battle of two teams that, if you believe the statistics so far this year, will be very evenly matched. So far this season UAB and Minnesota rank 95th and 97th in adjusted pythagorean win percentage. However, they have arrived at those similar numbers in different ways. The Blazers have the better offense with an adjusted offensive efficiency of 103.6, good for 92nd in the nation, while Minnesota has an adjusted OE of 98.3, 146th in the country. Meanwhile, Minnesota, aided by a 25.7 % TO percentage, and 72.7 % defensive rebounding percentage, has the better defense, 66th in the nation versus 103rd. Despite this fact, UAB is second in the nation in defensive TO percentage at 31.2. They have led the nation in steals in each of the past three years. Both teams feature bad field goal percentage defense with UAB giving up a horrendous 51.9 eFG% against while Minnesota gives up 49.1 eFG% against.

Viewers will also see a constrast in styles, as the Gophers and Blazers have played at widely differing paces so far. When adjusted for competition, UAB, dubbed the “Fastest 40 minutes in basketball”, has averaged 75.6 possesions per game this year which ranks 28th overall and four spots ahead of Maryland, the fastest team the Gophers have played so far this year. Minnesota, on the other hand, averages 69.6 possesions when adjusted for competition which is good for 182nd “fastest” in Division I. It will be interesting to see which team can impose its pace on the game. Minnesota likes to run if they can get Vince Grier and Moe Hargrow in the open court, but the Gophers were worn down and commited 22 turnovers in fast-paced game against Maryland. In that game, however, the Gophers were without Rico Tucker, Grier, and Hargrow, all players who are relied upon to handle the ball. I suspect,with our renewed backcourt depth, tempo will be much less of a problem this time around.

Starting Backcourt

While the Blazers have experimented some with a three-guard lineup, they have mainly gone with the starting backcourt tandem of 6'2” senior Marvett McDonald and 5'10” senior Carldell Johnson. McDonald acts primarily as the team's two guard while Johnson is a pass first, pass second, shoot third point guard. While taking an average of less than five shots per game Johnson has averaged 5.7 PPG and 1.08 PPWS. However, he has dished out 6.7 assists per contest while averaging only 2 turnovers. These numbers are good for a gaudy 3.3 A/TO ratio. He is dangerous on the defensive end as well where he averages an amazing 3.7 steals per contest while playing 29.5 minutes per game. All of these numbers are fairly in line with his performance last season where he was 40th in the nation in steals, 3rd in CUSA in assists and 1st in A/TO ratio. Johnson looks like the type of low turnover high assits point guard I have been wishing for the Gophers to have for a long time.

McDonald on the other hand is second on the team in scoring with 13.0 PPG in 27.5 minutes this season. There's a slight problem though. He's done this scoring while averaging 13.33 shots per game. He's only hit 36.3 % of them including 14 of 47 (29.8%) three point attempts for an eFG% of 45% and a downright embarassing 0.93 PPWS. He doesn't bring a whole lot else to the table either only averaging 1.8 assists and 1.8 rebounds per game. Like many UAB players he does have a knack for creating turnovers averaging 1.3 steals per game. The Gophers would do well to sag off McDonald and hope he takes a lot of shots. Again three point field goal defense is a concern for Minnesota, but they're facing an opponent who has not shot at a high percentage.

Starting Froncourt

UAB has used mostly three-forward lineups without a true center, but have also gone with a three guard attack as of late. The two mainstays in the starting lineup have been 6'9” sophomore Frank Holmes and 6'7” senior forward and leading scorer Demario Eddins. While playing a team-high 30.3 minutes per game Eddins has scored 15.8 PPG while pulling down 4.5 rebounds which is second on a team that ranks in the 200's in both offensive and defensive rebounding. Unlike second leading scorer McDonald, Eddins has been efficient on the offensive end. He boasts an impressive 57.6% eFG while scoring 1.20 PPWS. On the defensive end he picks up 2.0 steals per game in UAB's high pressure defense. This is the second straight game where the Gophers have played a team with frontcourt strength and again the outcome of this matchup between Eddins and Tollackson/Stamper will be highly important to the outcome of the game.

Sophmore Frank Holmes has been the team's leading rebounder pulling down 5.7 boards while only averaging 21.1 minutes per game. While facing a Minnesota team that has been very good on the boards this year Holmes may very well see extended minutes to try and help the Blazers hang in there on the glass. While not a huge scroring threat Holmes plays very near the basket and has not attempted a three-pointer all year. He is 20-30 from the field for an eFG% of 66.7 and 1.23 PPWS.

Another player who has seen time in the starting linueup this year is 6'6” G/F Wen Mukubu, the team's third leading scorer at 12.2 points per game. In 22.2 minutes per game this year Mukubu has contributed in every aspect of the game. While scoring efficiently (1.29 PPWS, 62 eFG%), he has also chipped in 3.8 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 1.3 steals per game. On the negative side, however, he has turned the ball over 2.7 times per game.

Bench

The Blazers high energy trap defense requires them to substitute frequently. As a consequence UAB has five players in addition to their starting five averaging 9.5 minutes or more. Among them senior G Paul Delaney has seen the most playing time at 16.3 minutes per game. While he has contributed 5.8 PPG on solid shooting (1.17 PPWS), 2.2 rebounds, and 1.8 asissts, Delaney has also turned the ball over an astonishing 1.8 times per game. Look for Minnesota to apply some heavy pressure when he is in the game and starting point guard Carldell Johnson is out.

The primary froncourt sub has been Brandon Tobias a 6'7” senior averaging 14.5 minutes per game. Tobias is mainly counted on to help out on the boards where he is averaging 3.5 rebounds per game. He has some shot blocking ability with 0.8 blocks per game.

The other players who could see ten minutes or more are senior guards Richard Jones and Derrick Broom. Freshman forward Lawrence Kennard started the year in the starting lineup but has since saw his minutes dwindle before breaking a bone in his foot against Nebraska. He will not play.

This is the second game in a row where Minnesota will face a talented and efficient froncourt along with some players from the outside who like to fire shots at will. In the UNLV game as with other games this year the Gophers' defense has made some average to below-average guards look awfully good. The challenge again will be to shut down the froncourt, this time mainly Demario Eddins.

Against low major and mid-major competition, games usually come down to guard play as talented “big men” from these schools are usually shut down by the bigger and more athletic front lines of high major teams like Minnesota. Shooters and guards on the other hand don't always suffer from such a disadvantage because their teams can run plays to get them open looks and shooting is pretty much the same everywhere. Minnesota needs to get better at defending the outside shot if they are going to have any chance in Big Ten conference play where the competition down-low will be much better as well.

Ultimately, however, I think this game will come down to which team imposes their will on the other one. Both teams like to force their opponents into a large number of turnovers. The key for the Gophers, a team who also likes to turn the ball over a lot is to limit these turnovers. Therefore, Boone, Grier, Tucker, and possibly Hargrow will need to be ready to handle the pressure the Blazers will bring. On the flipside, will Minnesota be able to force the Blazers stingy point guard “Squeaky”Johnson into turnovers of his own?

The other key to this game is how dominating Minnesota can be on the boards. The statistics will tell you that Minnesota should have a huge edge in this department. I think that Minnesota will ultimately lose the turnover battle, but will they be able to make up for it on the glass?

I think the answer is no. Minnesota will win the rebounding battle but it will not be enough to overcome the Blazers trapping defense.

I hate to do this but,

Prediciton: UAB 75, Minnesota 70

Notes:

-Check out StarTribune.com for a profile of a player who is quickly becoming the official bench player of Gopher Hoops, Jamal Abu-Shamla. Click on the link here to see where he ranks in the Big Ten in terms of PPWS.

-Dan Monson has been cautious in setting a time table for Hargrow's return, but there is a "possibility" that he could return for today's game.

-Grant Peterson

Free Throws and other things

2005-12-12T23:28:00.000-08:00

If there is one thing that the Gophers have done well so far this year, it's get to the free throw line.

The Gophers have been there 28.1 times per game this season, which is somewhat inflated by the 49 (yes 49) trips to the free throw line that the Gophers earned at Arizona State. Free throws have also accounted for 24.7 percent of the Gophers' points, which ranks them 40th in the nation. The Gophers have actually made (125) more free throws than their opponents have attempted (107). And this has been done largely without Vincent Grier, who went to the line 6.8 times per game last season.

So what does this all mean?

First, the Gophers have been absolutely awful at making those trips to the line count. The team is shooting a anemic 63.5 percent from the line. The worst offenders you might ask? Spencer Tollackson and J'son Stamper are an indentical 15 for 28 (53.6%) from the stripe. Grier (12-19, 63.2%) and Rico Tucker (10-15, 66.7%) follow. Adam Boone started off well but has since sunk to 73.0 percent (27-37). Only Dan Coleman is shooting above 75 percent (78.6) and lucky for us, as I mentioned yesterday, he has been finding his way to the line much more often than last season.

On a more positive note, the fact that the Gophers have been getting to the line this often is quite encouraging, as we here at Gopher Hoops had questioned the team's ability to score inside at the beginning of the season. Yes, the teams they have played so far have not had the inside presence of what the Gophers will see in the Big Ten, and Maryland made it to the line 33 times to the Gophers' 15 in that matchup. But the fact that the Gophers have made more free-throws than their opponents throughout seven games, while shooting at such a low percentage has to be seen as a positive. Especially with Grier being absent for most of those games.

Now let's take a look at an issue on the defensive end. Gophers opponents have an eFG% of 49.1 this year, which ranks the Gophers at 172 in the nation in that field. A big contributor to that number is the fact that the Gophers have allowed opponents to shoot 39.4 percent on threes. The Gophers' defensive effeciency still sits at 92.1, good for 71st in the nation. They are forcing a turnover in nearly every four opponents possessions (25.7 TO%), which has kept their defensive effeciency above average.

There's something here that concerns me. As the Gophers run into tougher competition, it's going to be much tougher to force turnovers, and its hard to expect Big Ten opponents to shoot worse than the competition thus far. It's tough to draw too many conclusions when Grier and Hargrow have missed this much time early, but if you know the Grants, we are always looking for reasons to be concerned.

Not to bring more bad news, but I was having a look at some early RPI numbers over at the Mid-Majority, and they didn't bode well for the Gophers. Aside from the Gophers owning a 118 RPI rating. Seven of the Gophers' 11 non-conference opponents currently have RPIs over 200. What's troubling is I only really expect UNLV to really improve on that number (but not significantly) as they get into conference play and win some games. You would like to think that Arizona State would improve on their 231 rating playing in the Pac-10, but I really don't expect them to win more than five games in the conference, and I think that may be a stretch. I tend to favor Ken Pomeroy's rankings as a better measure for a team's success, but fortunately or unfortunately, the tournament committee is focused on RPI.

This makes it extremely important for the Gophers to close out the rest of the non-conference schedule with a bang, as there isn't much, if any, room for mistakes. So far, with the exception of the Gardner-Webb game, they have been able to take care of business. Alabama-Birmingham should give them their toughest test before conference play starts, and the other Grant will profile this year's Blazers tommorow.

If Saturday's game was indication, I expect the Barn to be rocking a little harder than it normally would at this time of year.

-Grant Boelter

Gophers 72, Runnin' Rebels 67

2005-12-11T22:56:00.000-08:00

What a nice suprise.

Although Dan Monson said that Vincent Grier's status for Saturday's game was doubtful, I really didn't even consider the possibility of seeing him in the starting line-up. Sure enough he was the first Gopher starter announced. I was actually thinking we'd see Moe Hargrow return, but instead it was Grier.

With the exception of looking like he was shielding his left hand at times from contact, the same old Vince showed up and posted this line:

36 mins, 19 pts, 6-12 FGs, 7-10 FTs, 2 rebs, 1 ast, 2 stls, 3 TOs

In addition, Grier accomplished a feat that I don't ever remember seeing in all the games I have watched - he converted field goal attempt after being the subject of a flagrant/intentional foul. Grier was coasting in for an easy lay up when UNLV's Curtis Terry completely wrapped him up from behind and Grier somehow flipped up a shot with his right hand that found the backboard and then the net. Grier then made both free throws and the Gophers got the ball out of bounds.

Playing without Grier for five games may have given Monson confidence to take him off the court for at least some amount of time, but obviously not too much time, as Grier only sat for four minutes. The Gopher back-up guards definately felt the effects of Grier's return as Jamal Abu-Shamala only played eight minutes and Brandon Smith only saw the floor for five.

I have to say I was a little disappointed to see the significant reduction of Abu-Shamala's playing time after he had 14 points on a perfect night of shooting at Arizona State. I'm not saying that I think he should be given the 25 to 30 minutes that he's been playing in Grier and Hargrow's absence, but after a game where he played a large role in salvaging a victory for the Gophers, it would have been nice to see him be rewarded with some more minutes. He made his only shot attempt - a three-pointer - on Saturday. It will be interesting to see where he fits in on this team when Hargrow returns.

Monson has now said that there's a good chance that freshman guard Kevin Payton will be redshirted this season, as he has not yet recovered from a shoulder injury. I think that this will prove to be a wise decision, as the backcourt now appears that it will be deeper than once thought. Especially since Monson has shown a penchant for playing Boone, Hargrow and Grier for nearly 40 minutes each game - all of whom are seniors. No matter how offensively inept Rico Tucker continues to look, there is no sense in rushing Payton back when there will be plenty of minutes to be had at the guard positions next year.

Dan Coleman has appeared to become more aggressive as of late and, as reported by Jeff Shelman, who in my mind does an excellent job as the Gophers' beat writer for the Star Tribune, has averaged 17.3 points and 6.3 rebounds since missing the game against Gardner-Webb. He had 16 points and nine boards Saturday.

Coleman's shooting has been less than desirable this season (44.0 eFG%, 1.01 PPWS), but I have always been the most concerned about his soft play. I think he will bring his eFG% back toward where it was in '04-'05 (47.6 percent) and if he continues to be more assertive inside, he will improve on last year's 1.00 PPWS. He's already equaled last year's total of 22 made free-throws, which is always a good sign.

The Gophers had trouble defending the 3-point line again Saturday, as UNLV went 10-22 from behind the arch. This contributed to an above average eFG% of 56.1 for the Rebels, but the Gophers were able to record a defensive efficiency rating of 96.0, thanks in part to 20 turnovers by the Rebels. The Gophers had a 103.0 offensive effeciency rating.

I know this is said all the time when a team's star player goes down for a number of games, but I think Grier's absence will help the Gophers in the long run. Some players who I didn't consider to be scoring options in the past stepped up in his absence out of necessity. Also, now if Abu-Shamala and Smith are needed if somebody gets injured or in foul trouble, they will have some experience under their belt. It's hard to single out specific players that became scoring threats in Grier's absence, but Coleman and Spencer Tollackson come to mind.

Tollackson is avering 10.4 PPG and has improved his PPWS from 0.98 last year to a respectable 1.08 this season. Coleman is averaging 13.5 PPG, up from 8.3 last year. I also have to include another shameless plug for our man Abu-Shamala as he has an eFG% of 68.3 and is averaging a whopping 1.38 PPWS. Talk about effeciency.

All in all, it's great to have the almighty Vince back in the lineup.

-Grant Boelter

UNLV Game Preview

2005-12-09T02:12:00.000-08:00

After a much needed four day break, the Golden Gophers (4-2) resume play at noon this Saturday against the Mountain West Confernce Runnin' Rebels of UNLV. The game marks the beginnning of a seven game homestand which includes Minnesota's final five non-conference games and Big Ten games against Northwestern and rival Wisconsin.

The Gophers are coming off of their first road victory of the year, a 85-79 overtime victory at Arizona State on Monday. The team is finally showing signs of being healthy as yesterday marked the first time all year the the full squad has participated in practice.
Coach Monson says senior G Moe Hargrow is “fifty-fifty”, and the return of Vincent Grier from a broken finger has not been entirely ruled out. I expect that Hargrow will give it go, but I'm not holding my breath on Grier.

UNLV comes into Williams Arena on a four game losing streak. After opening the season with impressive home wins against Long Beach State (108-73) and Hawaii (67-61), the Runnin' Rebels have posted a home loss to Nevada (68-61), and road losses to Oklahoma State (80-62), Oregon State (69-63) , and Hawaii (78-72). Through six games this year UNLV has posted an adjusted offensive efficiency of 94.8 (183rd in the nation) and an adjusted defensive efficiency of 89.3 (68th). Compare that with the Gophers who have put up an adjusted offensive efficiency of 97.9 (140th) and a defensive efficiency of 92.0 (94th) and this game has all the makings of a defensive struggle.

Before the season UNLV was tabbed by the media to finish third in the league behind San Diego State and perennial MWC front-runner Utah. After a season in which they finished 17-14 and advanced to the second round of the NIT, they began the year with their sights set on an NCAA Tournament berth. Certainly they've had a rough go of things lately under second year and former Illinois coach Lon Kruger, but its a little too early to push the panic button. There's no shame losing to Nevada, who has powered through their early schedule to garner a lot of national attention. Likewise Stillwater, Corvallis, and Honolulu are all tough places to play, so none of these losses is too troublesome individually. Add them all together, however, and you have a team that I'm sure will be eager to get a victory in Minneapolis.

Starting Backcourt

The Rebels feature a three guard lineup with 6-2 junior Michael Umeh, 6-0 senior Ricky Morgan, and 6-4 junior Jason Petrimoulx. Umeh, the biggest scoring threat of three (13.2 PPG) has done a lot of his damage from the outside. He has shot a respectable 11-29 (37.9%) from three point land this year. Overall, however, he's only shot 42.5% from the field and 60% from the line giving him an eFG% of 50, and an inefficient 1.02 PPWS. He's also turned the ball over 15 times while only contributing 14 assists.

While JUCO transfer PG Jason Petrimoulx has been a fairly reliable ballhandler for the rebels this year posting a 1.4 A/TO ratio, he has been even worse on offense than Umeh. He's managed to throw up 34 three point attempts so far this season while only making eight of them good for 23.5%. He hasn't been good from anywhere else either making 33.3% of his total shots from the field. Put it all together and he checks in with a 40.4 % eFG and 0.91 PPWS (ugh!).

Which leads us to Ricky Morgan. He's started five of the first six games, but only averages 16.7 minutes and 5.0 points per game. In that short time, however, he's managed to be second on the team with 2.5 assists per game. Unlike his backcourt mates he does his scoring efficiently with an eFG of 54.8% and 1.10 PPWS. As we shall see the Gophers would do well to pack the defense in against the frontcourt and take their chances with a Runnin' Rebel backcourt which likes to shoot, but as a whole is not very good.

Starting Frontcourt

UNLV's leading scorer and rebounder is 6-9, 225 pound senior forward Louis Amundson. In just 27.7 minutes per game this year, Amundsen is averaging 17.3 points and a monster 11.8 rebounds. The latter number is helped along by a 21 rebound effort in the home victory against Hawaii. In that game he also scored 22 points and had 11 offensive rebounds. He's been a beast on the offensive glass all year averaging 4.33 Oreb per game. Unlike his backcourt mates, he's been a highly efficient player. Amundson boasts a 58.5 eFG% and solid 1.19 PPWS which unfortunately is dragged down by 59.6% free throw shooting. That does represent significant improvement, however, over the 28.8% he shot last year from the line (that's right 28.8%!).

The other half of the froncourt tandem is 6-9, 230 pound senior Dustin Villepigue. Here's another Runnin' Rebel who is not taking many shots, but is doing a far better job than the guards when he does. Dustin has only averaged 6.7 PPG in 22.0 minutes, but has shot a ridiculous 77.3 percent (17-22) from the field so far on shots very close to the bucket. This leaves him with a nifty 1.50 PPWS for the season so far. He will surely come down to earth anytime now, but it is worth noting that he shot 53.8% from the field last season and 74.2% from the free throw line. While playing alongside Amundson he has managed to pull down 5.5 rebounds per game.

As mentioned above the key for the Gophers will be to shut down the frontcourt. It will be fun to watch J'son Stamper go toe-to-toe with Amundson on the boards. Spencer Tollackson should draw the task of guarding Villepigue and it will be interesting to see if Dustin can have another strong shooting effort.

Bench

The Rebels sixth man is freshman G Jo'Van Adams. In 23.0 minutes per game so far he is averaging 7.8 PPG and 2.7 APG. He is also a threat on the defensive end averaging 1.8 steals. Like the other guards he has he has taken a relatively large number of shots. He is shooting an absolutely horrendous 27.6% from the field on 16-58 shooting including 7-27 from three point range. Like the freshman that he is, he has also turned it over 3 times per game.

Second in line off the bench is sophmore G/F Terry Curtis. Like much of this team he is a terrible shooter. He has posted a 34 eFG% and .69 PPWS in averaging only 3.0 points per game in 18.8 minutes. G Rene Rogeau(15.2 minutes per game) has been bad as well posting an eFG% of 42.9. The only other player to average more than 10 points per game is F Gaston Essengue who has shot 11-17 from the field in 11.8 minutes per game this season.

In summary, UNLV has a stable-full of guards who can't shoot, but love to throw it up anyway, one forward who shoots a lot and does so very effectively, and a few more forwards who don't shoot much, but have made it count. I think this is the sort of team that the Gophers will matchup very well against.

Minnesota's problem on defense this season has been field goal percentage defense. They have given up an eFG% of 47.9 which ranks a mediocre 133rd in the nation thus far.
Much of this problem has been perimeter defense where Golden Gopher opponents have shot 38.1% from beyond the arc. With a team eFG% of only 48.1 (183rd) the UNLV guards simply won't be able to take advantage of Minnesota's weak perimeter defense if they continue to shoot the way they have.

This is also a matchup of two very good rebounding teams as the Gophers rank 11th in offensive rebounding and UNLV ranks 39th. On the defensive boards however Minnesota ranks 45th, while UNLV ranks 150th. The Gophers would appear to have the edge, but if UNLV has any chance in this game they are going to have to win the battle on the backboards.

I don't think they will. I look for a defensive struggle between two teams with good defenses and bad offenses. Minnesota should win the rebounding battle and Adam Boone will have another big night. The frontline should have their hands full with Amundson, but I look for Dan Coleman and Jamal Abu-Shamala to once again have solid outings and continued rebounding heroics from J'son Stamper.

Prediction: Minnesota 65, UNLV 55.

Notes:

-I got my first chance to see the University of Arizona basketball team in person tonight against Northern Arizona. I won't say much, but there is something definitely wrong with this team on the offensive end. The game featured a bunch of Arizona dunks, but Arizona never really shook off NAU until the closing minute. On offense, the Wildcats seem to be a bunch of athletes running around with no clear team concept. With the struggles of both Arizona and Stanford in the early going, I think its safe to say that Washington is the clear favorite in the Pac-10 right now.

-Former Minnetonka guard senior Steve Sir played tonight for NAU and had nine points on 3-8 shooting all from 3 point range.

-Arizona Senior G Chris Rodgers had one of the worst halves of basketball I have ever seen. He shot nine three pointers in the first half and made only two of them. He did absolutely nothing else as he just stood on the perimeter wating for his teammates to pass him the ball. By the end of the half NAU stopped guarding him, and the fans were booing and jeering him. It was so bad that in the second half Lute Olsen didn't even let him back in the game. His final line: 14 minutes, 2-9 shooting(all 3's), 0-0 FT, 0 rebounds, 0A, 0 PF, 1 S, 6 PTS.

-Grant Peterson

Dr. Molinari, Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Dan Monson

2005-12-08T01:40:00.000-08:00

I tried to come up with a topic for today's entry all day long but all I did was draw a blank. I thought about a few statistical analyses that I could run, but didn't think they'd be all that interesting only six games into the season. I'd certainly said all I wanted to say about the Arizona State game, and I thought about talking about the state of the team, but I think its a little early to pass judgement. Thus I have decided to introduce myself and give you an opportunity to see where I'm coming from as a Golden Gopher fan.

When I talk about Golden Gopher basketball, from here on out, I mean the Dan Monson era plus one game. My Gopher hoops memory begins with Minnesota's first round defeat against Gonzaga in the 1999 NCAA Tournament. The academic scandal, where the late Jan Gangelhoff, a former University of Minnesota employee did numerous assignments for basketball players, had just broken and four players, Kevin Clark, Miles Tarver, Antoine Broxie, and Jason Stanford, were suspended for the game. I remember thinking we had no shot in this game, but as I came home from class, I was a junior in high school at the time, there was freshman walk-on Dusty Rychart leading the charge. The Gophers trailed by as much as 21 points in the second half, but when Rychart, who finsished the game with 23 points and 17 rebounds in 37 minutes, made a reverse layup with 6:29 to go the score stood at 58-54 Gonzaga. Minnesota went on to lose that game75-63, but that freshman walk-on from Grand Rapids, Minnesota, only 40 miles from my hometown Hibbing, was the talk of the town. Sure he had been an All-Iron Range Conference selection but few believed he would become a big-time Division I basketball player. He ended up being my favorite Gopher player.

Its not that I wasn't a fan of the Gophers before that; I grew up as a kid watching every game on Midwest Sports Channel. I remember how exciting it was when they made their Final Four run, but somehow I've expunged most of that from my memory. Sure I'll admit I can vividly recall Bobby Jackson's reverse layup to tie the game against Kentucky in the national semifinals, but for the most part I don't remember much about Clem Haskins' teams because let's face it, they cheated. I held onto to those so-called glory years for a little while, but now I don't care. Dan Monson's Gophers are my Gophers.

After graduating high school in 2000, I decided to attend the University of Minnesota. One of my first priorities when I got there was securing season tickets at Williams Arena. Though I had been a fan all my life, I had never witnessed in a game in The Barn.

The building was great, but the first games, against our traditionally soft early season schedule, were somewhat of a disappointment. When the Big Ten season finally rolled around in January, I made the four hour drive from my parents' home in Hibbing, I was home for winter break, to see the Gophers play the hated Wisconsin Badgers. Some Minnesota fans think that Iowa is a bigger rival, but I've never been able to get too worked up about the Hawkeyes. I hate the Badgers. I don't remember the score of the game, but the atmosphere was electric and the we were able to pull out a victory. I was hooked.

That year an underdog Gopher team opened 15-3, including overtime wins against Indiana and Nebraska and at Marquette, before season-ending injuries to Mike Bauer and J.B. Bickerstaff led to a collapse and a final 18-14 record. They did however earn an NIT berth and won their first round game against Villanova before an ovetime loss to eventual champion Tulsa. While that season was tough to take, the team hung in their and fought without two of their best players, and the rest of the season did feature some highlights.

The next two years brought much optimism, but they both ended in heartbreak. In the 2001-2002 season, all the Gophers had to do was win their final Big Ten home game against Illinois, and they would be guaranteed a berth in the Big Dance. They led the game in the final seconds before an inexplicable series of turnovers, by my least favoirte backcourt of all time, Kevin Burleson and Kerwin Fleming.

They again collapsed down the stretch in 02-03. Finishing 8-8 in the Big Ten and losing in the first round of the conference tournament after starting 8-5. Our final home game that season featured Kirk Penney hitting five second half three pointers as Wisconsin dropped our record to 8-6. We then lost our last two road games and our fate was sealed. I remember it well. I cursed Coach Monson. I was sure that he was the wrong person for the job. I'd suffered too long through turnover kings Kevin Burleson, Kerwin Fleming, and Mike Bauer. I was sick of Rick Rickert, and frustrated that Jerry Holman never developed.

The next season did nothing to dissuade me of my notions about Dan Monson. I thought he sucked. I thought he need to leave. He had clearly lost control of his team. Moe Hargrow quit. There was the Wesley Washington debacle where they couldn't get their prized recruit admitted to the school. Several other players quit the team. They finished 3-13 in the Big Ten. I was disillusioned. I had watched the team show so much promise for my first three years in school, but they never got it done. The forth year they had completely bottomed out. I knew the remedy, and it was obvious. Fire Dan Monson.

They didn't. And so as I began my fifth year, yes fifth year, at the University of Minnesota, I had seen virtually every Gopher basketball game in the last four years, but I made a decision. I wasn't going to abide by this any longer. I didn't buy season tickets. I wasn't going to sit through guarantee games against the likes of North Carolina A&T and Wofford. They weren't going to get any money from me. Sure I was following the team a little, but I had very little expectations.

The team opened the season 3-3, losing to the only three good teams they had played, and I was watching an early season game against Nebraska on ESPN. The Cornhuskers led 22-9 in the first half on their wasy to a 26-17 halftime lead. It looked pretty obvious to me that we were going to lose this game. Then it happened. I had heard a little about the new assitant coach that Dan Monson had hired, Jim Molinari. He was supposed to come in and fix our defensive issues. I thought good luck, as Minnesota had been perennially terrible on defense. In the second half of the game the Gophers completely shut down the Nebraska offense. They just did not allow the Cornhuskers to get any open looks whatsoever. They finished the game on a 17-3 run en route to a 57-48 victory. In this game, they looked like a team that was the exact opposite of every other team in the Dan Monson era. They didn't look good on offense, but they were scrappy and gritty on defense. They were smart and avoided mistakes. They won the game by simply outwilling and outlasting their opponent. I didn't recognize them.

Then the local media started talking about Molinari. Here was the guy that was responsible for the turnaround. Monson had brought him in to be a “defensive guru”. It worked. Finally, instead of being perennial underachievers, they were overachievers. They succeeded with guys that no one ever thought would make Division I basketball players. Three seniors Jeff Hagen, Brent Lawson, and Aaron Robinson had producttive seasons, and with JUCO transfer Vincent Grier this team was finally tournament bound. I attended every home game during the second half of the season, and made the road trip to Charlotte, North Carolina for their first round NCAA game versus Iowa State. I promised myself I would never give up on them ever again.

And I forgave Dan Monson. Although many have attributed the defensive turnaround to Molinari, I argue that you can just as easily attribute it to Monson. An important part of a coach's job is to hire assistants. Look at Joe Paterno, he hasn't called a play in over 15 years. Monson found the guy that could get his team to respect the defensive end of the court. Whether or not they can continue that success this season is up in the air (we'll visit this issue in this space later in the year), but I'm now convinced Monson is the right man for the job. He's steered the team through a lenghty probation period and now has them on firm footing. If he can parlay some of the momentum he has into a couple of good recruiting hauls, the Gophers will be a perennial contender for a tournament bid. I for one am optimistic.

Thanks for hanging in their with me through what is probably some incoherent rambling. I promise I'll be back to my normal self tomorrow with a UNLV game preview chalk full of statitics and objective analysis. For now a few random lists.

Favorite Golden Gophers:
1. Dusty Rychart
2. Jeff Hagen
3. Travarus Bennet
4. Vincent Grier
5. J.B. Bickerstaff

Least favorite Golden Gophers:
1.Kerwin Fleming
2.Mike Bauer
3. Kevin Burleson
Everyone else is inconsecuential after these three.

Favorite player who never played:
Roye Arie

Favorite nicknames:
1.”The Borg” Ryan Wildenborg
2.”Sunshine” Steve Esselink
3.”Stu” Stan Gaines
4. “The Rick” Rick Rickert

Remember these guys?:
1. Mitch Ohnstead
2. Miles Webb
3. Wesley Washington
4. Kerry Woolridge
5. Aliou Kane

Favorite games:
1.Minnesota 60, Wisconsin 50 (02/05/04): Vincent Grier scores 32 points including 26 in a second half in which he displayed Michael Jordan-type dominance.
2. Minnesota 54, Wisconsin 49 (01/06/01): My first Big Ten game at The Barn.
3.Michigan State 94, Minnesota 83 (02/11/01): A severely depleted team just kept shooting threes and was led by a monster night by Terrance Simmons to almost knock off a highly rated Michigan State squad. The game was tied with about five minutes to go if memory serves correct.
4.Minnesota 88, Indiana 74 (02/02/02): Jerry Holman had a monster game as the Gophers played a nearly flawless second half to complete dominate the Hoosiers.
5. Minnesota 72, Georgia 69 (11/30/02): Mike Bauer hits a last second three pointer that seems to lay on the rim for ever. Only good thing that guy ever did.

-Grant Peterson

Changing of the (Point) Guard

2005-12-06T20:50:00.000-08:00

Coming into the season, one of my biggest concerns was that Adam Boone was going to be a severe downgrade from the departed Aaron Robinson at the point guard position. I know it's a little early to be taking a look at this, but I'm going to do it anyway.

Quite honestly, if you would have told me at the beginning of last season that replacing Robinson was going to be a major issue, I would have laughed until you slapped me in the mouth. However, I had his career stats before the 2004-2005 season on my side:

78 games, 10.4 mpg, 1.8 ppg, .308 3FG%, .425 eFG%, .89 PPWS, 1.3 A/TO, .0528 stls/min

So he was about as inneficient as they come. To see how awful Robinson's Points Per Weighted Shot (PPWS) numbers were, take a look at Big Ten Wonk's ranking of returning Big Ten players for this season. Then a new Aaron Robinson showed up for the 2004-2005 season. His line for the year:

32 games, 32.6 mpg, 8.4 ppg, .397 3FG%, .575 eFG%, 1.19 PPWS, 1.3 A/TO, .0528 stls/min

So basically, a significant shooting improvement made Robinson a much more valuable player. Now let's compare Robinson's line with Boone's line this year:

6 games, 38 mpg, 14.7 ppg, .351 3FG%, .477 eFG%, 1.08 PPWS, 1.2 A/TO, .o570 stls/min

Basically, Boone is scoring more, but at a less efficiency than Robinson did last year. Their assists-to-turnover ratio is nearly the same and Boone has been stealing the ball slightly more often. Boone has also been to the line more frequently, as he has already made 25 free-throws, while Robinson made only 30 all of last year. Boone has basically gotten the job done differently than Robinson did last year. It's debatable as to whether either did a better job as the team's main point guard.

But let's look at Boone's stats in 2003-2004, when he was starting ahead of Robinson. This will tell you why I was, and still am a little bit, concerned:

30 games, 32 mpg, 8.4 ppg, .289 3FG%, .442 eFG%, 0.96 PPWS, 1.86 A/TO, .0322 stls/min

First of all, both players averaged 32 mpg and 8.4 ppg, when comparing Boone's 2003-2004 season to Robinson's of last year. However, as you can see Boone scored that 8.4 ppg far less effeciently than Robinson did. Boone also was far less of a pest on defense, but did take care of the ball more effectively. All things considered, I think most would agree with me when I say that I would take Robinson's season, hands down.

Like I said, it's far too early to tell if Boone will become a more efficient player this season, but the early indication is that he's improving. This will be something that I will revisit later in the season, possibly after the Big Ten schedule is under way.

-Grant Boelter

Gophers 85, Arizona State 79, OT

2005-12-06T00:16:00.000-08:00

Ugly. According to the other Grant, the overtime was the ugliest five minutes of basketball he had ever seen. I could say almost the same thing for much of the game. Sure there were flashes of actual basketball skill on display tonight, but for the most part it was an ugly, but surprisingly entertaining basketball game to watch tonight. Its funny that if you look at the stat sheet, you wouldn't really get the impression of an ugly game. The Gophers and Sun Devils only turned it over 15 and 13 times respectively in an overtime game, and the Gophers pretty well with a 54.7 eFG%. But look closer. Minnesota shot an absolutely inexcusable 27-49 (55.1%) from the free throw line. Arizona State wasn't much better as they shot 17-27 from the line and had an eFG% of 43.1. As we shall see, all of these numbers are enhanced by the second half runs made by both teams.

Since Grant gave me away in his game preview, you probably already know that I am a fan in exile. After graduating from the University of Minnesota last spring I began graduate school this fall at the University of Arizona. As such, you may have noticed that I have been writing the game previews while the other Grant takes care of the game reviews. It makes sense, I suppose, because he actually gets to attend the games. Well this time he got to sit at home while I drove an hour and a half from Tucson to Tempe with my friend Jeff to watch the game at Wells Fargo Arena on the campus of ASU.

This was my first chance to see the Gophers live and in person, and I'd have to say that my impressions pretty much matched up with a lot of what Grant has been writing about.

First half

As the first half opened, both teams started out sluggishly and missed a lot of open shots. From the outset, Spencer Tollackson looked like he was going to have a big game. He appeared to be much more skilled then the Arizona State big men and was able to easily get good solid post position early in the game. The only problem was he couldn't finsh, and by time only two minutes had passed, he already missed two easy layups, and the Gophers remained scoreless. For the next five minutes, with the rest of the offense unable to do much of anything Adam Boone carried the team. He made a long two point jumper coming off a screen and created his own three point shot, and after five and half minutes the Gophers trailed 8-5. During this period the Gophers struggled defensively giving up two easy buckets on inbounds plays under the hoop. It could have been worse, but the Devils missed some easy shots of their own. All in all the defense could not stop ASU when they started with the basketball under the hoop. For the entire game I counted at least 5 easy layups created by out of bounds plays.

The rest of the first half was mostly a see-saw affair with Adam Boone and Dan Coleman carrying the Gophers offensively. With about ten minutes to go in the half Coleman started to assert himself on the offensive end, taking the ball to the hole against the smaller Sun Devil forwards. Both Craig Austin and Jeff Pendergraph tried to guard him, but Coleman was able to drive the lane and pull up for jumpers and drive past both of them. He didn't look for his outside shot much, but he repeatedly took the ball agressively to the hole. He finished with eight first half points and three rebounds. This was a big boost to a team that was struggling outside of Adam Boone who tallied 10 first half points. With the defense sagging off him, J'son Stamper was able to get some open looks from 15-18 feet, but was only able to make 1 out of 3 of them, and as Grant has noted this is probably not the type of shot Gopher fans want to see Stamper attempt on a regular basis.

All the while, the Gophers played decent half court defense and totally shut down the outside game of the Kru(e)ger duo (Kruger had 5 first half points, Krueger had 4). However, they continued to struggle against the inbound play, and gave up a number of easy looks inside. While the guards were largely unable to get their own shots, they were succesful in creating easy inside opportunities for their teammates down low. Of the Sun Devils 32 first half points, 18 came on layups and dunks. These points were not of the post up variety, but largely due to communication issues between the Minnesota forwards. Spencer Tollackson and Jonathan Williams looked especially clueless against numerous Arizona State pick and rolls and back-door cuts. Poor man-to-man defense eventually led to Dan Monson going with a 2-3 zone for quite some time in the second half.

The first half ended with the score 32-30 ASU. It could have been better for the Gophers, however, as they only went 5-12 from the line, a problem that continued in the second half.

Second half

While the first half was a back and forth affair that saw neither team lead by more than four points, the second half was a half of runs. The Golden Gophers came charging out of the gates with a 13-2 run in the first six minutes. The offense came from both the inside, outside, and the line, as the run was led by Spencer Tollackson (four points on two layups), Dan Coleman (three points on free throws) and Jamal Abu-Shamala (six points on two threes).

Speaking of Abu-Shamala, he is quickly becoming my favorite player on the team. Sure he's not a great athlete and can't create his own shot, but I cannot believe that he is a walk-on true freshman. Tonight, in his best game as a Gopher he looked calm and collected as he displyed great shooting (5-5 from the field including 3-3 from three-point range), some decent rebounding, a great post pass to Spencer Tollackson for a layup, and the ability to secure the ball (0 TO in 31 minutes). For somone who has watched nearly every game of the Dan Monson era, I've seen many players that can hurt a team in a number of ways (I'm thinking Kerwin Fleming, Kevin Burleson, Mike Bauer, et al.). It's nice to see another guy who, while he's a different type of player, is starting to remind me a lot of my favorite Gopher of all time, Dusty Rychart.

But enough Abu-Shamala related gushing for one post. The 13-2 run was capped with a Spencer Tollackson layup to make the score 43-34 with 14:00 to play. At that point Arizona State outscored the Gophers 6-3 over the next four minutes to the cut the deficit to 46-40. At that point, Minnesota countered with a 7-0 spurt to push grab its largest lead at 53-40. In this run Abu-Shamala hit another 3 pointer and had a layup both setup in transition by great passes from Adam Boone. With 8:42 left in regulation the Gophers had outscored the Sun Devils 23-8 to open the second half.

While Adam Boone had only two points in this stretch, in my opinion he was the sparkplug of this run. He found Abu-Shamala on two of his three-point attempts and had another assist on his layup in transition. He continually forced Arizona State's hand by pushing the ball up the court. He looked very comfortable in this postion and it got me thinking, should the Gophers look to run more. After seeing what I saw during that run I think the answer is yes, as long as Adam Boone is bring the ball up. This is a team that is struggling on offense and I think that anyway they can find to score points will be a help.

At this point, Dan Monson, with a 13 point lead, tried to get some rest for Boone, who was averaging 36.8 minutes per game going into this contest. The results were disastrous. Aided by a couple of Rico Tucker turnovers, the Sun Devils reeled off 7 straight points on a free throw and three straight layups. The Gopher offense looked stagnant with Tucker at the point and Boone on the bench. When Boone reentered the game after only one minute on the bench, Monson inexplicably left Rico to handle the ball while Boone was essentially the off-guard. The offense remained stagnant and after shutting him down all game, Arizona State guard Kevin Kruger suddenly came alive. He hit two three point jumpers in under a minute, and after two Pengergraph free throws the game was suddenly 55-55 with 3:46 to go.

For the next minute and a half the teams dueled back and forth until Adam Boone made a three-pointer to give the Gophers a 62-59 lead with 2:16 left. The teams then traded scoreless possessions before Dan Coleman gave the Gophers a 65-59 lead on a three-point play with 1:00 on the clock. At that point it looked like they had the game in hand.
Not so fast.

J'son Stamper was called for a foul with :48 to go and Antwi Atauhene, after making the first, missed the second free throw, but Minnesota failed to box out. Tyrone Jackson put back the rebound to make it again a 3 point game. After an empty Gopher possesion, the Sun Devils had missed two good three point looks and when Spencer Tollackson grabbed the rebound with 12 seconds to go, Minnesota had finally sealed the win, right? Well, here's where the ugly free throw shooting really came to haunt the Gophers. Tollackson missed both free throws and the defense allowed a quick three-point attempt by Bryson Krueger. He missed, but again the Gophers failed to corral the rebound and Coleman fouled Tyrone Jackson with five seconds to play.

Jackson made the first, but then purposely missed the second. J'son Stamper, clutch rebounder that he is, secured the board with 3.6 seconds remaining and the Gophers were going to get their first road victory of the season. Or not. This time Stamper made one of two free throws, but Minnesota allowed ASU to inbound the ball all the way to half court to their best three-point shooter Kevin Kruger. Not only that they allowed him to dribble the ball all the way to about 21 feet from the hoop and Boone was so afraid to commit a foul in that situation that he hardly contested the shot. After the ball hit the backboard and rattled around before finally falling, the game was going to overtime with the score tied at 66.

Overtime

At this point, it looked like the Gophers were going to let a sure victory slip away. After another easy inside bucket by the Sun Devils, Boone missed two more free throws and the Gophers trailed 68-66. Boone didn't let it happen though. He knocked down a three-pointer to give the Gophers the lead back at 69-68 and then hit two free throws after a Kevin Kruger two to give the Gophers the lead for good at 71-70. Boone finished with 11 of his game high 28 points in the overtime.
The play that sealed the victory, however, was a three-point play by J'son Stamper. With 1:27 left and the Gophers clinging to a 73-70 lead, Jonathan Williams missed two more free throws, but Stamper got the second rebound and the hoop and the harm gave Minnesota a finally insurmountable 76-70 lead. Stamper finished with 8 points and 14 rebounds for another monster effort on the boards. The Gophers managed to hit 9 of 12 free throws down the stretch to close out the 85-79 victory. This time it was the Sun Devils free throw shooting that failed them as Allen Morrill was 0-4 from the line in the extra session.

Wow, that was almost as exhausting as the game.

Notes
-Moe Hargrow was in attendance, but did not play due to a high ankle sprain.

-I got my first opportunity to see several new Gophers this evening. I was impressed by the above mentioned Abu-Shamala, but underwhelmed by the others. Brandon Smith doesn't seem to contribute anything whatsoever on the offensive end and looks somewhat confused in the half-court sets. Jonathan Williams is conmpletely lost and out of postion in the offense. He didn't look that great on defense either, but luckily he was guarding Craig Austin while he was on the court. The fact that Austin, while being 6'10” gathered only one rebound in 27 minutes tells you all you need to know about his game.

-Rico Tucker also looked terrible with an 0-5 shooting night and 3 turnovers in 18 minutes. He did not record a steal and looked uncomfortable in the half-court offense. While Adam Boone constantly broke down the opposing defenses and created shots for both himself and teammates, Tucker did none of this.

-While the official box score lists the attendance at 8,416, I promise you there were no more than 5,000 people at this basketball game, and that's being very generous. I was surprised to see such a sparse crowd for a Big Ten opponent. There was no one in the upper bowl and the lower bowl was maybe half full. The only sections that had any fans in them were the student section on one end and the section where I sat on the other end, which was mostly Minnesota fans.

-The Gophers Offensive Efficiency (points per 100 possessions) was 108.6 by far their best output of the season. They were helped along by a eFG% of 54.7 and a better-than -average 19.7 TO% after turning it over on 24.8 percent of their possesions for this season. If you want more tempo-free Big Ten stats John Gasaway has compiled them all at Big Ten Wonk.

-Arizona State is not a very good team. Still it was great to see the Gophers gut out a road win without the services of Vincent Grier AND Moe Hargrow. This takes away some of the sting of the home loss to Gardner-Webb.

-Player of the Game: Adam Boone had a great game (28 points on 8-16 shooting, including 4-9 on threes and 4 assists in 44 minutes), but I'm going with a guy who did a little bit of everything. Dan Coleman was the Gophers MVP tonight: 6-12 FG, 10-13 FT, 9 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 blocks.

-Well that was Gleeman-length now wasn't it?

-Grant Peterson

Gophers 75, Chanticleers 57; Arizona State Game Preview

2005-12-05T01:06:00.000-08:00

Saturday's game was just what the doctor ordered for the Gophers. And by that, I mean a game against a second-rate opponent, where the Gophers would have had to do everything wrong to lose the game.

The most intriguing thing about Saturday's game was the return of "Uncle" Rico Tucker from academic lockdown. If his first game back is any indication of what's to come, it looks like nothing much has changed in regards to Tucker's play. His offensive play was erratic at best and he somehow managed to foul out of the game, but he also recorded six steals, and the Gophers now have someone who has the ability to apply full-court pressure to the opposing point guard. Apparently Tucker played last year while battling Graves' disease, so it will be interesting to see if his performance changes this year.

Tucker's line for the game: 21 mins, 10 pts, 2-6 FGs, 6-8 FTs, 3 rebs, 3 asts, 3 TOs, 6 stls, 5 fouls

As the game was pretty uneventful for the most part and I don't really want to relive the monotony, I'm just going to sum it up by saying that the Gophers were pretty much were able to have their way inside with the Chanticleers, who didn't feature a regular who was much bigger than Jamal Abu-Shamala. The Gophers' frontcourt regulars led the team in scoring (Coleman 14, Tollackson 13, Stamper 13) and prevented the Chanticleers from doing much of anything inside. For more statistics, check out the box score at the Mid-Majority.

Tollackson showed off his passing skills, recording five assists. If he can attract double teams and pass out of them against bigger and more talented opponents, it will be a huge boost. However, I'm not too confident that this will be the case, but it would go a long way toward replacing the production lost by the graduated Jeff Hagen.

Random notes for those who weren't able to see the game (as you probably know, it wasn't on TV)

Adam Boone had one of the weekest dunk attempts on a wide-open breakaway that I have ever seen. I don't know if his hand even got above the rim, as the ball basically missed the rim entirely. Boone didn't exactly light the world on fire in other aspects, as he shot 2 for 7 and turned the ball over five times. However he did record five assists.

I saw one of the most inexplicable calls by a referee that I have ever seen in a college basketball game. Stamper tried to take a charge on Chanticleer C Adrian Gross and the baseline official called a block. Play was then stopped, and somehow the final result was a double-foul call and both Stamper and Gross. This will be one of the rare times I will mention officiating on this blog, but can somebody please tell me how this call is possible?

Arizona State Game Preview

The Gophers (3-2) will travel to Tempe, Ariz., to face the Arizona Sun Devils (4-0) for their last road game before the Big Ten conference schedule begins. The Sun Devils have been picked by many to finish near the bottom of the Pac 10 after losing do-everything F Ike Diogu to the NBA. The Sun Devils have recorded victories against Southern Utah (82-62), Alcorn State (86-74), California-Santa Barbara (73-57) and North Texas (83-67). All of those victories came at home. So far this season, the Sun Devils have posted a offensive efficiency of 111.9 and a defensive efficiency of 89.5.

Coach Dan Monson said G Moe Hargrow's status was "still real doubtful", so it looks like Gophers will once again be playing without him.

The other Grant will be in attendance, as he is currently enrolled in graduate school at the University of Arizona. Therefore, he will chip in with the game review tommorow.

Let's go ahead and meet the Sun Devils.

Starting Backcourt

The Sun Devils start three guards, Kevin Kruger, Bryson Krueger and Tyrone Jackson. The two Kru(e)gers lead the Sun Devils in scoring with Krueger averaging 19.3 ppg and Kruger averaging 14.8. Krueger, a sophomore, has shot the lights out this season (67 3pt%, 71.4 eFG%). It looks like it's not a total fluke as he post a 55.9 eFG% last season.

Kruger, a junior, has a 60 eFG%, and has an average eFG% of 51.4 over the past two seasons. He's also the son of UNLV coach Lon Kruger. Sophomore Tyrone Jackson averages 7.3 ppg, but is averaging more tunovers (2.5) than he is assists (2.3). Last year he had an A/TO average of 2.06.

Starting Frontcourt

The two starting forwards for the Sun Devils are Serge Angounou and Craig Austin. Angounou, a junior, is averaging 6.5 ppg, but has an eFG% of only 22.7. However, he has made 16 of 18 from the line to pring his PPS to 1.18. Last year he posted a career high 45 percent field goal percentage.

Austin leads the team in rebounding at 4.8 rpg and is averaging 9.8 ppg. The sophomore is shooting 51 percent from the floor thus far.

Bench

The Sun Devils have four reserves who avarage over 10 minutes per game: gaurd Antwi Atuahene and forwards Jeff Pendergraph, Allen Morrill and Bruno Claudino.

Atuahene, a freshman, is averaging 9.3 ppg in 24.5 mpg. He has a riduculous 73 eFG% so far. Most of his scoring comes inside the arch, as he has only attempted and made one 3-pointer. He also has showed a tendency to turn the ball over as he's averaging 3.5 TO/game.

Pendergraph, Morill and Claudine average between 10.5 to 16.5 mpg and 3.0 to 5.7 ppg. Their stat lines suggest that they are basically the same players who don't shoot threes and are there to rebound. Unless the Gophers make one of them look any different, this is all that I'm going to mention about these guys.

This game is going to be very difficult for the Gophers to win if they can't keep Arizona State's shooters in check. The team ranks 53rd in the nation with a 53.9 eFG%. However, the Gophers should provide the Sun Devils with their first true test this season. Without Hargrow, Tollackson will have to continue his steady performance as the team's first option on offense. It will be interesting to see what Arizona State's forwards have to offer on the defensive end, as inside play may be an area where the Gophers have an edge (this will not be the case in most of the other games).

Prediction: Gophers 71, Arizona St. 68

-Grant Boelter

Coastal Carolina Game Preview

2005-12-02T00:19:00.000-08:00

The Gophers will try to end a two-game losing streak when they host the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at noon this Saturday at Williams Arena. The Gophers are coming off a road loss to Maryland where they led at halftime but were worn down in the second half by the Maryland press. In that game leading scorer Moe Hargrow went down with a leg injury, and it is not known at the time of this writing whether or not he will be available on Saturday.

Coastal Carolina is a liberal arts college located in Conway, South Carolina. The Chanticleers play in the Big South Conference where they were predicted by the conference coaches to finish second behind defending champion Winthrop. Head Coach Buzz Peterson is in his first season at the school after four years at Tennesee in which he led the Volunteers to a 61-59 record. His other coaching stops include Tulsa and Appalachian State.

Die hard Golden Gopher fans will remember his last visit to Williams Arena when the Golden Hurricanes defeated Minnesota 76-73 in overtime in the second round of the 2001 NIT which Tulsa eventually won. In that game, in which the Gophers trailed by 18 in the second half, Terrance Simmons(28) and Dusty Rychart(23) combined by 51 of the Gophers' 73 points in a losing effort. I distinctly remember this game because even though the Barn was less than half full that night, during the furious comeback in the second half it seemed to be as loud as I have ever heard it.

But enough with the reminiscing and on with the preview. Coastal Carolina comes into the game with a 1-2 record after road losses to Jacksonville State (82-71) and Wisconsin (92-54) and a home victory over Division II Coker College (70-35). In these first three games they've posted an offensive efficiency of 87.2 and a defensive efficiency of 121.7. These numbers are good for 261 and 332 in the nation among 334 Division I programs. In other words, their offense has been bad, but at least it hasn't been as bad as their defense. In addition, the Chanticleers will play at a considerably slower pace than the Terrapins. Coastal Carolina has averaged 71.5 possesions per game which is 154 in the country.

This could be just what the doctor ordered for a thin Gophers' team that is struggling on offense. Through Wednesday's game against Maryland, Minnesota's offensive efficiency sits at 95.3 good for 170th in the nation. This number is slightly below the Division I average of 96.0 thus far this season. Meanwhile even after surrenduring 83 points to Maryland, the Gophers' defensive efficiency still checks in at a very respectable 89.7, good for 81st among DI programs. Last year the Gophers finished 24 in the nation in raw defensive efficiency.

Starting Backcourt

The bulk of the scoring in the Coastal Carolina attack lies in their starting backcourt where they feature two preseason all-conference selections. Senior Pele Paelay and sophmore Jack Leasure have combined to score 41 percent of the Chanticleers' offense so far this season. The 6-3 Leasure leads the team in scoring with 17.0 points per game. While shooting only .383 from the field he is shooting .382 (13-34) from three point range for an eFG% of .521. Shutting him down from the outside will be a key for a Gopher defense that has allowed opponents to shoot .433 on threes after allowing a stingy .274 last season. In addition to scoring, Leasure is also second on the team with 5.0 rebounds per game. It will be interesting to see if Gopher guards Adam Boone and Moe Hargrow, active rebounders in their own right can keep him off the glass.

The other half of this tandem, Paelay is defending Big South Conference Player of the Year. So far this season he's off to a slow start averaging 11.7 points per game after 16.8 last season. He checks in with a eFG% of .533 and has shot 4-14 from the outside so far this season. He is an excellent defender, and led his confrence with 2.4 steals per game last season. It will be interesting to see if these two guards can play with Minnesota's experienced backcourt tandem.

Starting Froncourt

The leader of the frontcourt is 6-5 junior Moses Sonko. He is the only other player on the roster to average double-digits with 12.0 points per game. He has been much more efficient than his backcourt teammates, however. He comes into Saturday's game with an eFG% of .737, hitting 6-9 three point shots. If he is matched up with Spencer Tollackson on the defensive end, and this could pose a difficult matchup for the Gophers. Spencer has a difficult time staying with more athletic forwards who can shoot from the outside. Dan Monson would do well to defend him with Dan Coleman and leave Spencer to guard Matt Brennan.

The 6-8 C/F is Coastal Carolina's leading rebounder thus far. He is averaging 6.0 rebounds and 7.0 points in 26.7 minutes per game this year. While he hasn't taken many shots, 5-9 from the field, he does lead the team in free throw attempts and free throws made making 11 out of 13. All this adds up to a very impressive 2.33 points per shot. Sure its only 3 games, but it bears mentioning anyway. Of course we have nothing to compare this to because he's just a freshman.

The fifth member of the starting five is 6-7 sophomore Chad Ferguson. He hasn't scored too much, 8.3 points per game in 24.0 minutes, but like Brennan has been quite efficient. He comes into this contest with a .656 eFG% while hitting 3-7 three-point attempts. He has also chipped in with 3.7 rebounds per game.

I believe the Gopher frontcourt will favorably with this group. I look for both Dan Coleman and Spencer Tollackson to have big games on the offensive end. With a front court for Coastal Carolina that runs 6-5, 6-7, 6-8 both Tollackson and Coleman (both 6-9) will have a distinct height advantage. The Chanticleer frontcourt is also undersized and J'son Stamper should be able to manhandle them on the offensive and defensive boards.

Bench

Coastal Carolina has four players who average between 10 and 14 minutes per game off the bench, but none of them seem too interested in providing much in the way of rebounding or scoring. Freshman F Joseph Harris has averaged 2.0 points and 2.7 rebounds in 14.7 minutes per game. He has however grabbed 5 steals in those 3 games. Senior G Colin Stevens has chipped in 3.0 points per game. Freshman Gs Mario Sisinni and Steven Sexton have each seen 10 minutes per game in the first three games.

Coming off a tough Maryland loss which has the other Grant still feeling optimistic and me feeling well. . . not so optimistic, its good to know we have an opponent like Coastal Carolina coming to The Barn. The lack of depth on the Carolina bench and relatively slow tempo of play will certainly be to our advantage as they will be unable to wear us down as the Terrapins did. An undersized frontcourt should provide plenty of opportunities for our big men to score, and with Hargrow's status in doubt for this game, that's a good thing. I also look for another dominant performance on the boards and a big game out of Adam Boone. As long as our defense can avoid mental lapses and close out on Carolina's three-point shooters this should be a relatively easy win.

Prediction: Gophers 70, Coastal Carolina 55

-Grant Peterson

Terrapins 83, Gophers 66

2005-12-01T01:00:00.000-08:00

Well, the other Grant wasn't too far off with his prediction.

I think it's fair to say that the Gophers simply ran out of gas in this one, much as predicted. The fatigue was evident in shooting percentages from the first half to the second.

First Half eFG% - .672 (29 shots) Second Half eFG% - .266 (32 shots)

A wise man once said, while maybe it was just my dad, who coaches high school basketball, that the first things to go when fatigue sets in are shooting and the ability to take care of the ball. In this case the old man was right on, as the Gophers committed 22 turnovers to Maryland's nine. The usually sure-handed Adam Boone ended the game with six turnovers while playing all 40 minutes.

Something that I noticed about the Gophers last year, is that while they committed a bunch of turnovers, many didn't seem to be "bad" turnovers, which gave the opponents an easy chance to score on the other end. However, this is pure speculation, and I don't have the stats to back it up. This was not the case tonight, as Maryland scored 29 points off of Gophers mistakes, which contributed to the Gophers defensive efficiency (more like defficiency) rating of 111.15. The Gophers were only able to manage five points from Maryland's turnovers, and offensive effeciency of 92.79. Much of this is probably due to the fact that they were only able to grab one steal to Maryland's nine.

However, the Gophers were able to continue their dominance on the boards as they outrebounded Maryland 43-31. The Gophers also were able to rebound 49 percent of their own misses, as 20 of their rebounds came on the offensive end. This can be used as evidence, that even though the Gophers are severly outmanned at times, like they obviously were tonight, they are willing to claw and scrap for what they can get. This gives me hope for when everybody is healthy. Let's just hope that the time comes before it is too late.

I still don't know what exactly to think about Dan Monson's tirade early in the second half after the Gophers had let the lead slip away. I'm wondering if he actually had a method to his madness or if he simply just lost control and couldn't hold it back. I don't think anything could be done at that point to get the players to play any harder. If anything, they needed something to calm them down and get them under control. Get where I'm going with this?

Either way - and I'm sorry for going preachy for a second - it resulted in three free points for Maryland, which gave them an 8-point lead. Needless to say, they didn't have to look back from that point on.

J'son Stamper continues to be an absolute behemoth on the glass, contributing 12 rebounds, six of them offensive. He improved his shooting a little, going 5 for 9, and knocked down some long twos, which I'm still not sure if that's where Gopher coaches (and fans) want to see him shooting from.

Jamal Abu-Shamala was able to make his presence felt on the boards, ripping down nine, with four coming on the offensive end. I'm going to come right out and say that we - the two Grants - like this guy. There's no doubt that he's physically limited, but he's been able to eat up minutes without being a liability. He's averaged 26 mpg since Grier's injury and has averaged a respectable 7 ppg. While he's only chipped in three assists in those games, he's only turned the ball over three times. The team was already in desperate need of some shooting and its nice to have a guy who can come in and be a threat from outside without hurting the team too much in other aspects.

It's tough to see the team get trampled after starting the game leading 23-8, but at the same time it's encouraging to see them show some resolve. A team that already had a hard time scoring before it lost its two leading scorers - Moe Hargrow and Vince Grier - is simply going to have a hard time competing with a top 25-caliber team. Not to mention the Gophers were rotating seven players against a team that plays faster than almost any other in the nation. On top of that, there was a time during the game that 6-9 F Dan Coleman was the team's option at the 2-guard position, as he was on the court with Boone, Stamper, Jon Williams and Spencer Tollackson. Basically, if the Gophers were in this game at the end, it would have been a miracle.

Hopefully, Hargrow's leg injury doesn't turn out to be a serious and the Gophers can scrap for enough wins before the Big Ten schedule starts and Grier returns.

Other Big Ten notes:

How scary is Indiana's frountcourt going to be once D.J. White returns. After seeing Marco Killingsworth go 15 of 20 from the floor, while torching Duke and Sheldon Williams for 34 points, I'm frightened about what those two may be able to do together.

It somehow didn't occur to me that Iowa has pretty much their whole team back from last year. A team with that many experienced players who can shoot and score effectively and a capable defense could make a lot of noise this season. They have already beaten strong Kentucky and N.C. State squads and lost a very competitive game to #2 Texas. Head over to Hawkeye Hoops and our fellow blogger Ryan Kobliska can tell you all you need to know and more about this team.

The Big Ten improved its standing in the ACC/Big Ten challenge by winning 5 of the 11 contests, after winning a combined four in 2003 and 2004. While this isn't exactly the best measuring stick, the conference seems like it will be tougher this year. I'm curious to see how Michigan will do if they have G Daniel Horton available to them all year. He was suspended for most of their conference schedule last year and they basically imploded in his absence. Also, it will be interesting to see just exactly how good Ohio State's touted recruiting class is, while they still have one of the conference's more dominant players in Terrance Dials.

-Grant Boelter

Maryland Game Preview

2005-11-30T00:29:00.000-08:00

The Gophers will go on the road for the first time this season when they travel to College Park, MD to take on the No. 23/20 (AP/Coaches) Maryland Terrapins at the Comcast Center. Tipoff is set for 6:30 PM CST and the game will be televised on ESPN2. The game is a part of the Big Ten/ACC Challenge which is currently tied at 3 games a piece after the ACC took 3 of 5 games on Tuesday evening. I'll save you a bunch of useless trivia about the Gophers' and Terrapins' record in this event.

Coming off a home loss to Gardner-Webb is not the way you would like to head into a hostile road game against a ranked opponent, but that is the position the Gophers find themselves in. F Dan Coleman should return to the team for Wednesday's game after taking care of some personal matters, but probably will not start. Dan Monson had hinted last week that G Rico Tucker could return for the game also, but that has apparently been ruled out. In addition, G Moe Hargrow also has a minor ankle sprain. Let's hope its not anything serious, because as you will see, the Gophers are going to need all able bodies against a deep and fast-paced Maryland bench.

Maryland was picked to finish fifth in the twelve-team ACC this season behind Duke, Boston College, Wake Forest, and NC State. If early season performance is any indication the Terrapins look like they may make a solid push to finish third behind powers Duke and Boston College. Maryland started the season with a 111-85 home victory over Farleigh Dickinson before winning the consolation bracket at the Maui Invitational. Their only loss there was a competitive 88-76 loss to No. 6/7 Gonzaga in which the Bulldogs pulled in way in the waning minutes. In the tournament they defeated host Chaminade and Arkansas. They come into this game off a 88-56 home victory over Nicholls State.

The Terps are averaging 89.6 points per game in their five games this season,with an offensive efficiency of 112.89. That number would have put them in the top ten of all Division 1 teams last season. They are also playing games at the break-neck pace of 79.37 possesions per game, a number that would have been the fastest in the nation last year. Contrast that with the play of the Gophers so far who have averaged 69.82 possesions per game in their first three. There are certainly sample size issues here, but keep in mind that Maryland was the second fastest team in the nation last year at 79.0 possesions per game. Their O.E. however is being helped by games against Division II Chaminade as well as Nichols State and Farleigh Dickinson. All this means is that the Gophers' solid defense should be challenged tonight. Also the fast pace may be a real problem for a team that is playing shorthanded for the third time in five days.

Starting Backcourt

The Terrapins leading scorer is starting shooting guard Chris McCray. The senior has averaged 17.6 points in 31.4 minutes after averaging 14.1 points a year ago. Beware of sample size isssues, but McCray has been much more efficient this year than he was last year. Last year he sported an EFG% of .515 and scored 1.34 points per shot. In five games this year he has an EFG% of .615 while averaging 1.69 PPS. Shutting him down will be a key to the Gophers' defensive strategy.

The other half of the starting backcourt is PG D.J. “Don't call me Darryl” Strawberry. Strawberry is a player that does everything well; he had a double-double last time out(12 points, 12 assists against Nicholls State). He averages 9.2 points per game in 24 minutes a contest. He leads Maryland in assists at 5.0 per game while only turning it over 1.8 times for a A/TO ratio of 2.78. A good defender he has picked up 2.4 steals per game this year despite limited minutes. Last season he picked up 1.9 steals per game while averaging just over 21 minutes. Not really much of an outside threat, but has made three of four three-point attempts this season.

Starting Frontcourt

The starting frontcourt for the Terrapins features three forwards without a true center. These include leading rebounder Ekene Ibekwe. The 6-9 junior averages 6.4 rebounds in 22.6 minutes per game while chipping in 13.6 points per contest shooting .581 from the field. It will be interesting to see if Ibekwe can maintain these numbers. Last year as a sophomore he averaged only 8.4 points and shot .409 with similar playing time. If he can Maryland has really got something here. On the defensive end Ibekwe takes advantage of his long lean frame to average 1.6 blocks/game after averaging 1.8 last season. I'd say Ibewke is set for a break-out year and the Gophers' frontcourt will have their hands full with him.

At another forward spot is another all-name team member Nik Caner-Medley. The senior is the most experienced player on the team as he started 18 games as a true freshman, and has now played in 100 regular season games. A solid rebounder, he grabbed 6.2 boards per game last year and 5.8 so far this year. He scored 16 points/game last year and is averaging 11.6 so far this year, but he is far from an efficient scorer. His .47 EFG% so far this year is not at all out of line with the .513 he posted last season. Bottom line is that he is an experienced frontcourt body that will be tough to handle for the inexperienced Gophers' frontcourt. J'son Stamper will most likely get the assignment to try and shut him down.

Finally, rounding out the frontcourt triumvirate we have 6-8 sophomore James Gist. He has averaged 11.0 points per game with an EFG% of .458. Last season as a freshman he averaged 6.2 points per game in 17.2 minutes with a FG% of .492. A decent rebounder, he pulled down 3.9 rebound/game last year and 5.2 so far this year in 21.6 minutes. Also a good shot blocker with 1.0 blocks/game last season and 1.8/game so far this season. A player I really don't know much about so I won't say a whole lot more.

Bench

In addition to the starting five, Maryland has 4 other players who have seen an average of ten minutes or more this season with two of them scoring over nine points per game (I said they were deep). They are led by senior forward Travis Garrison and junior guard Mike Jones. Garrison is averaging 9.6 points and 6.2 rebounds in only 18.4 minutes. A valuable bench player he had similar numbers last year when he averaged 10.1 points and 6.5 rebounds in slightly extended playing time. Mike Jones chips in 9.8 points per game, 2.4 rebounds, and 2.4 assists in just over 19 minutes. The other two players to see time off the bench are 7-1 junior C Will Bowers and 6-4 senior guard Sterling Ledbetter.

While the loss at home to Garnder-Webb was discouraging there were some postives to come out of the game. The Gophers' outhustled and out-rebounded the Bulldogs 45-24, and Spencer Tollackson provided a much needed third scoring option with a career high 21 points. The Gophers' will need to be ready to rebound again tonight against a team with plenty of solid rebounders. Also Adam Boone will need to get back on track after a night in which he shot just 1-10 from the field. I look for him to bounce back and have a good game along with continued solid play from Moe Hargrow. I think Tollackson, however, will struggle to duplicate his Monday success against the talented and experienced frontcourt of Maryland. If he proves me wrong and the guards play a spectacular game, and J'son Stamper is his normal rebounding self, and he provides some offense, and Abu-Shamala. . . oh never mind we don't have any chance.

Prediction: Maryland 80, Gophers 67

-Grant Peterson

Bulldogs 73, Gophers 72

2005-11-29T12:02:00.000-08:00

We should have known that it was impossible for J'son Stamper to play an entire game without committing a foul.

Stamper was just 3.2 seconds away from playing a foul-free 33 minutes, as he hacked G Tim Jennings on his way to the hoop. Jennings went on to complete a 3-point play that gave Gardner-Webb a one point victory.

However, to single out Stamper would be ridiculous. The Gophers defense had by far their worst performance of the year, posting a defensive effeciency of 104.58. Much of the reason for the Gophers poor defensive performance was due to the fact that the team seemed to at times forget about Bulldog shooters. The Bulldogs shot 9 for 14 from 3-point land in the first half and 60 percent (12-20) for the game. They also had an team eFG% of 63, which is pretty outrageous to say the least. None of the Bulldog regulars had an eFG% under 50.

Gopher shooters on the other hand were equally as cold, as the team posted an 38 eFG%. Since they were able to pull down a whopping 24 offensive rebounds, they actually posted their best offensive effeciency rating of the year at 104.77. The Gophers pulled down 55 percent of their own misses. But the Gophers went 1 for 13 from the arch and missed numerous bunnies, which is probably the biggest reason they were trailing most of the game.

To be honest, this is quite a blow to a team looking to get back to the Big Dance. Even though Gardner-Webb has a good shot of winning the Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament and getting a tournament berth, this will still show up as what the committee considers a "bad loss." The Gophers worse non-conference loss last year came at the hands of Florida State at the Barn, and this will probably reflect worse, even though the Bulldogs could make the tournament and Florida State didn't. The Bulldogs will likely finish with a lower RPI rating than the Seminoles did at the end of last year.

While playing without three contributors - Dan Coleman missed the game because of a family emergency - the Gophers dominated this game physically, as they outrebounded the Bulldogs 45-24 and made 23 free-throws, while the Bulldogs only attempted eight. But their inability to convert on offense and the Bulldogs hot shooting ultimately cost them the game.

When a player who began the season as a walk-on sees 27 minutes, it obviously shows that there's a depth problem. That being said, Jamal Abu-Shamala contributed another 8 points to a team in dire need of scoring.

While Stamper has been a monster on the boards, he has twice as many offensive rebounds (10) on the season than field goals (5) as he is shooting an attrocious 28 percent. It would help the team out quite a bit if he can start converting on some of those rebounds.

Some of you who are looking at the box score for this game, may be placing a lot of blame for the loss on Adam Boone, who had a 1-for-10 night from the field and was 0-6 from 3-point land. Although I've never been the biggest Boone supporter, I think the box score is a little misleading in regards to Boone's performance. He was forced into a couple bad shots as the shot clock ran down (which might have been partially his fault sometimes), and went 8-8 from the line. He also pulled down eight rebounds. I'm still holding out hope that, in the right role, Boone can make a significant positive contribution to this team.

My apologies to Andrew Bogut for mentioning him in the same sentence as Gardner-Webb C Simon Conn. The comparisons are only country-of-origin-deep as Conn has a nice touch around the basket, but has the mobility of Vlade Divac at the end of his career, at best.

We'll see what kind of effort the Gophers can put forth against Maryland, as it's possible that both Rico Tucker and Coleman could return to the lineup.

-Grant Boelter

Gardner-Webb Game Preview

2005-11-28T00:14:00.000-08:00

The Gophers' continue their Vince Grier-less non-conference schedule tonight at 7:00 p.m. when they host the Gardner-Webb at Williams Arena. Tonight's game marks the beginning of a 10-day strech in which Dan Monson's team will play five games. This stretch, which includes games at Maryland and Arizona State will be critical to the Gophers' tournament chances and Monson has already used the term “survival” to characterize the next 10 days.

Gardner-Webb is a Southern Baptist liberal arts college located in Boiling Springs, North Carolina with an enrollment of just over 3,200. The Runnin' Bulldogs were picked by both the coaches and the media to repeat as regular season champions in the Atlantic Sun conference this season. In addition, they boast three preseason all-conference first teamers in seniors Simon Conn, C, Brian Bender, F, and Tim Jennings, G. An experienced squad, five of the top six in minutes so far this season are upperclassmen - four of them are seniors. This experience and talent should give the Golden Gophers their stiffest test thus far, as both the rosters of UT-Chattanooga and NDSU were full of underclassmen.

The Bulldogs are led by the forementioned Simon Conn, a 6-9 250 pound center from Melbourne, Australia. After averaging 14.2 points per game, and 7.4 rebounds last year in 26.3 minutes, he is averaging 15.7 points, but only 4 rebounds in 29 miinutes per game in 3 games this year. He has been efficient as well with a .645 FG% and 1.52 PPS (points per shot). This is no fluke as he shot .575 last year. It will be interesting to see how the interior of the Gopher defense deals with a talented big man like Conn. Let's hope that Conn isn't part of some crazy Australian cloning experiment that may have started with last year's first round NBA draft choice Andrew Bogut.

Their second leading scorer and leading rebounder is fellow all-conference selection forward Brian Bender. In three games thus far against North Carolina, East Carolina, and Auburn he has averaged 11.3 points and 6.3 rebounds. He has not however been as efficent as his frontcourt mate with an eFG% of only .46 which has been help along by hitting 5 of 13 three-point attempts. He was equally inefficient last season when he had an eFG% of .485 and only 1.26 PPS.

After that the Bulldogs start 3 guards in seniors Tim Jennings and T.J McCullough and junior Chris Gash. While Gash and Jennings (9.7, 9.3 points per game respectively) have both provided scoring, Gash has shot more efficiently and has the ability to get to the free throw line. This has attributed to his 1.45 PPS. Meanwhile Jennings has not attempted a free throw all season and is only averageing 1.08 PPS. Both McCollough and Jennings (4.7, 4.3 assists per game) have shown ability to distribute the ball, but McCollough has been much better at protecting it with only 2.7 TO/game, while Jennings has turned it over a whopping 5.3 times per game.

Outside of the five starters, Gardner-Webb has 3 additional players who have played all three games while averaging 10 minutes or more. Leading the reserves is freshman guard Ricky McPhee. While not showing anything in the way of passing or rebounding McPhee has averaged 10.0 points in only 19.7 minutes in 3 games this year. The team's best outside shooter thus far, he has hit 7 of 16 three point attempts to give him an eFG% of .52 on the year. Freshman G Takayo Siddle and senior F Mike Jones round out the top 8 though neither has provided much in the way of offense this season. Jones, however, has pulled down 3.0 rebounds while averaging slightly over 10 minutes.

In their first three games Garner-Webb has an offensive efficiency of 93.52 points per 100 possesions. However, it will be interesting to see which Bulldogs team shows up in Williams Arena tonight. Will it be the team that lost 83-80 to North Carolina and defeated East Carolina 77-72, or will it be the team that lost their last game 70-43 at Auburn. My guess is that they will be smarting from such a terrible loss and come to Minnesota focused and ready to atone for such a poor performance. In this case the Gophers better be ready to compete.

The Gophers will need to continue to get production from Adam Boone and Moe Hargrow, but someone else needs to step up and take some of the scoring load off these two. If not opposing teams will be able to key on the guards and make someone else beat them. Can Dan Coleman shake off two terrible performances and provide some scoring help? Can Jamal Abu-Shamala continue his steady shooting performances? Can J'son Stamper put back some of his offensive rebounds? Some of this will need to happen in this game and over the next five games if this team is to succeed. In their first Grier-less outing Saturday, Hargrow and Boone accounted for over two-thirds of the scoring and 36 percent of the rebounding. In addition, Boone is averaging 37.5 minutes and played all 40 on Saturday. Hargrow is averaging 38 minutes. It will be critical for these two to get some help, or they will be awful tired after the next 5 games. The Gophers improved on both offense and defense from game one to game two, they will need to continue that trend if they are to handle Gardner-Webb.

In the end, I believe the Gophers' pressure defense will be too much for the Bulldogs who will succumb by turning the ball over too many times just as UTC and NDSU have before them. Simon Conn will have a good game on the interior for Gardner-Webb, but the Bulldog guards will be no match for Boone and Hargrow.

Prediction: Minnesota 68 Garnder-Webb 59.

-Grant Peterson

Gophers 67, Mocs 46

2005-11-28T00:04:00.000-08:00

The first game of the Grier-less period for the Gophers went about as good as anyone could have expected. Relying on defense (67.95 defensive effeciency) and a combined 44 points from Moe Hargrow (24) and Adam Boone (20), the Gophers were able to coast to a victory over Tennessee-Chattanooga.

Hopefully, the defense will remain a constant, as the Gophers continue life without Vince Grier. If they continue to shut opponents down to this extent, they will be able to compete in any game. Of course, other opponents will bring more to the table than the Mocs, as they were playing without out two seniors (Steve Cherry and Jerice Crouch) who are sitting out for academic reasons. During the first two games, the Gophers average defensive effeciency is a stingy 71.9. This is still encouraging, despite facing second-rate competition.

Hargrow has shown the ability to consistently score and if Boone can continue to shoulder a large portion of the load, it will help immensely. For Boone to continue scoring efficiently, he will need to get his three-point percentage back near where it was his sophomore year at North Caroline, when he shot 43 percent from behind the arch.

It looks like Dan Monson has decided to hand some of the point guard duties to Hargrow, which as I said earlier, should be a good thing. This also brings up an interesting point in regards to Boone's 3-point shooting.

Boone went 5 for 10 from outside on Saturday. In all of his five makes, Boone shot after receiving a pass. On two or three of his misses, Boone was shooting of the dribble. While this is too small of a sample to provide any conclusive evidence, I believe Boone is much more effective as a spot-up shooter. It's something to keep an eye on as the season progresses, because if Boone can can bring that 3-point percentage up, his value to the team increases immensely.

Jeff Shelman, the Gophers' beat writer for the Star Tribune, wrote an interesting article about freshman C Jonathan Williams. Apparently Williams came to the Gophers last fall weighing 310 pounds, as he is now down to 255. As I said earlier, I don't expect Williams to contribute much this year, but if he can provide a line like he did Saturday (13 mins., 4 rebs.), he might be a serviceable back-up for the other big men.

As far as some of the other back-ups that saw increased action in the wake of Grier's absence, Brandon Smith got a suprise start and Jamal Abu-Shamala saw 23 minutes off the bench. Smith appeared to be pretty limited offensively, (25 eFG% in 16 mins), he looked comfortable on defense. If Abu-Shamala (8 points, 57eFG%) can continue to knock down the occasional 3-pointer, it will be a big boost, as this team needs any scoring help it can get.

Saturday's MVP - Adam Boone (20 pts., 61 eFG%, 10 rebs.)

-Grant Boelter

Blocks: An overrated statistic

2005-11-23T23:20:00.000-08:00

We've all seen it.

A slashing guard snakes his way toward a wide-open basket, looking at a sure lay-up, when all of a sudden the opposing center comes out of nowhere and swats what was a sure two points into the 10th row. The crowd goes insane, while the shotblocker is bumping chests with the rest of his teammates.

But what did it accomplish? The other team still has the ball, and the worst-case scenario for them is a shot clock short on time. Sure it's an exciting play to watch, but the end result does no great service to the home team.

As a statistic, blocks have been around for a long while, intended to measure an individual player's defensive value to his team. But let's pause for a second and take a look at what this statistic really means.

The first question that pops up about this statistic, is how many times does the defensive team actually recover the ball after a block. If the block results in a turnover, it definitely has value to the team. However, if the offensive team recovers the ball, how much value does a block actually have. Shouldn't the people keeing the statistics not only keep track of rejections, but also how often they actually result in a change of possession?

It could be argued that erasing an opponent's shot attempt is defensive progress, no matter what happens afterward. I will agree that this is true, which brings me to a second point.

How many shot blockers actually consistently contribute to the team's defensive concept? Enter Exhibit A: former Gopher Michael Bauer.

In his last few years as a Gopher, Bauer consistently was among the leaders in the Big Ten when it came to blocks. However, you would be hard pressed to find anyone who has been around basketball for any significant amount of time that would say Bauer was a true defensive asset. He was not quick enough to stop anyone on the perimeter, and not big enough to hold his ground in the post. He also often lost track of his man (or his assignment in a zone) while following the ball.

Not to get sidetracked, but wasn't Bauer one of those players who seemed like he spent a good decade in the Big Ten, following the mold of Jess Settles from Iowa and Brian Cardinal from Purdue?

What isn't shown in the amount of blocks that a player records, is how many times a player is out of position when he records the block. I compare it to interceptions in football. Sure, a conerback might record eight interceptions in a season, but does that mean he performs better than a player that opponents never throw at because his receiver is always covered? Also, does he get the interceptions, because he is always gambling, which may result in numerous big plays for the opposition?

Similarly, a player recording a large number of blocks, may be allowing more shot attempts from the man he's guarding. Also, he may be consistently leaving his man open, roaming to block shots, and therefore he is not able to recover if the ball is passed to his man for an open shot or an easy lay-up.

These are very elementary examples, in an issue that is more than just black and white, but I think you see where I'm going. While blocks do hold some value as a statistic, one should look at how a block is recorded, not just how many a player records.

-Grant Boelter

Grier out 4-6 weeks; Returnees statistical breakdown

2005-11-22T01:50:00.000-08:00

I'll admit it. Despite all evidence to the contrary I was optimistic about the Gophers this season. Sure they lost all of their key senior leadership from last year in the form of Jeff Hagen, Aaron Robinson, and Brent Lawson. This also amounted to their most efficient scorers and the core of their great derfense. They were left with a lot of question marks going into this year, but I had one reason for my optimism: Vince Grier. Sure it's cliche, but I truly believed that as long as the Gophers had Vince Grier, they would be in almost any game. Well, with the Star Tribune reporting that Vince Grier will be out 4-6 weeks, the entire non-conference schedule, I can finally admit that they are screwed. With that here's a further break down of our returning players. . . I'm depressed.

I'll break down each players' performance in the last season he played. That will be last year for everyone except for Boone and Hargrow.
Guards

Moe Hargrow (03-04)
Hargrow last saw action back in the 2003-2004 season. He played in 15 games and then walked off the team transfering to Arkansas. I remember thinking at the time that it was no big loss, as he wasn't really contributing much. Looking at the numbers it seems my memory serves me correctly. That year Hargrow had an effective field goal percentage of .427. That's not good. In fact it is the worst of any of the returners. He averaged 5.71 rebounds per forty minutes and hauled in 0.97 steals. He did however turn the ball over 2.74 times per forty minutes, which as you will see resembles the turnover rate of both Grier and Boone in their last full seasons. Presumably though, they handled the ball considerably more than Hargrow.
In summary, it appears on the surface that Hargrow is a horribly inefficient player with a bad field goal percentage and a lot of turnovers. However if we look back to his sophomore season, we see that he has an eFG% of .491, shooting .389 from 3 point range. There were rumorers during the 03-04 season that Hargrow did not get along with current Utah Jazz forward Kris Humphries, and this probably contributed to his decline in output. In addition Hargrow brings a good defensive prescence and some athleticism to the team. I look for him to improve and be a big part of this team. With Grier out for the non-conference, Hargrow will be counted on to carry the offense and I predict he will be the team's leading scorer in non-conference play.

Adam Boone(03-04)
Another player who hasn't seen action in a year, the similarities between Boone and Hargrow don't end there. Boone also boasts a subpar .442 eFG% from his last full season after shooting eFG% .576 as a sophomore at North Carolina. Certainly some of that gap is due to the fact that he played a much more limited role at UNC, but that can't possibly account for all of it. Apparently he had mononucleosis for much of the second half of the campaign so maybe that bails him out. Like Hargrowe I believe he will improve on his horrible shooting from last time out. However, he is slow and cannot create his own shot. Dan Monson will need to get Boone coming off some screens if he wants to see if Boone really can shoot. He also turned the ball over 2.75 times per 40 minutes, but given the amount he handled it this is a good number. In other words he won't lose the game for you. Doesn't help much in terms of rebounding (4.12/40) but most point guards don't. Another player who will have to step up his scoring in the abscence of Grier.

Forwards

Vincent Grier
I guess they call Grier a forward now, so I will follow suit. He's not the most efficient shooter in the world with a .486 eFG%, but he does lead all returning players in that category. He turns the ball over a fair amount, 2.95/40, but that's excusable for someone who is such a playmaker. One of the quickest players in the Big Ten, he got to the free throw line 218 times making 161. At only 6-5, he hauled down 6.18 rebounds/40 minutes last year. Given the amount of playing time he gets and J'son Stamper's proclivity for drawing fouls, I was going to predict that Grier would lead the team in rebounds this season. Now that he's out, that won't happen, at least in the non-conference. The trouble with losing Grier is that the Gophers not only lost by far and away their best offensive player, but they also lost their best defender (2.19 steals/40) and one of their most dependable rebounders. Another aspect of Grier's game that will be sorely missed is his ability to play a large number of minutes. Last year he averaged 36 minutes per game. Without him and Rico Tucker, this team is really only five players deep now, with freshman Brandon Smith the first guy off the bench. That's trouble. . . BIG trouble.

Dan Coleman
As the tallest player on this team (6-9) he needs to improve on his paltry 6.57 rebounds/40 from last season. That didn't seem to be the case in the Gophers' first game against NDSU, however, where Coleman only pulled down three offensive and no defensive rebounds in 30 minutes of play. Problem alert! Coleman does not play big. He only blocked 11 shots in 497 minutes of play last year. About the only thing he does do well is shoot the three. Last year he shot .342 % from downtown, and even that isn't spectacular. All this led to an eFG% of .476. I'll be honest, I hope he can find some toughness and turn it around, but I just don't see it. He gives up position easily in the post and just looks like he doesn't want to get hurt.

J'son Stamper
Well I guess we found our rebounder. Stamper averaged 11.05 rebounds/40 minutes last season. He also grabbed 1.31 steals/40, a good number for a forward. The only problem was that his value is diminished by the fact that he turns the ball over at a breakneck pace and fouls constantly. He averaged 4 turnovers per 40 minutes last year, an astonishing feat considering the number of times he actually handled the ball. Also he was good for a foul once every 6.79 minutes he was on the court. J'son will need to stay out of foul trouble to be valuable to this team, especially now considering the depth issues.

Spencer Tollackson
Another guy who turned the ball over quite a bit, he averaged 3.0 TO/40, and only was a slightly better rebounder than Coleman with 6.59 rebounds/40. As is a common theme on this team he is not a very efficient shooter with a .466 eFG%. Not much to say as he saw limited action last year, but as with Coleman, he will need to play bigger. He showed some encouraging signs in the NDSU game.

-Grant Peterson

Gophers 70, Bison 57

2005-11-21T22:09:00.000-08:00

It could have been better, but it could have been a lot worse.

After watching the game, I expect that North Dakota State will someday develop into a passable, mid-major Division I program. While they committed 26 turnovers in the game, they are a fundamentally sound team that just isn't athletic enough at this point to compete against Big Ten-caliber competition. In my mind, most of the turnovers were mainly a result of the Bison's inexperienced guards and wings not being able to handle Minnesota's bigger and quicker guards, specifically Moe Hargrow and Vince Grier. This being said, as the NDSU's young roster matures and Coach Tim Miles is able to bring in more legitimate Division I players, look for the Bison to gain entry into a conference (possibly the Big Sky) and become a legitimate program.

As for the Gophers, its become apparent that depth will be a major concern. While Rico Tucker is still glued to the bench because of academic troubles, the team does not have a legitimate option for a back-up point guard. For this reason, Grier, Hargrow and Adam Boone played a combined 114 minutes out of a possible 120, with Grier remaining on the court for the entire game. This is not what you like to see in a game that the Gophers were all but guaranteed to win.

Too make a bad situation worse Grier could possibly be sidelined for a significant amount of time with a hand/wrist injury. If this is true, the Gophers are in serious trouble, as it would need significant contributions from untested freshmen Brandon Smith and Jamal Abu-Shamala.

However, Grier was his usual dominant self Friday, bailing the Gophers out at times when they could have let the game slip away. While he turned the ball over seven times, most of his turnovers did not provide the Bison with transition opportunities, as at least three came on traveling calls.

Grier's line for the game:

8-13 FGS, 5-9 FTS, 62 EFG (effective field goal percentage), 21 points, 7 rebounds, 5 assists, 4 steals, 1 block

Counting the exhibition games, Grier is 16-28 from the line so far. It's far too early to worry about Grier's free-throw percentage, where he normally makes around three out of every four. However, a number of his misses have been off to the left or right, instead of short or long, which most coaches would tell you is a sign that there is something fundamentally wrong with the shooter's follow-through. At any rate, with Grier getting to the line at the rate he does, it's something to keep an eye on as the season progresses.

After expressing some hope that Jonathan Williams could contribute in the post, I'm convinced he will be a non-factor this year. While he only played five minutes Friday, he looked completely lost during that time. He seemed to have trouble keeping track of both his man and the ball on defense and he continuously found himself out of position. He possesses some ability as a shot-blocker, but as you will find out later on, we believe that blocks as a statistic are severely overrated.

While the Gophers have some depth in the two post positions (Coleman, Tollackson, Stamper), that quickly goes out the window once Stamper gets in foul trouble, which he often does. He fouled out in 21 minutes Friday.

The frontcourt will be a major area of concern for the Gophers, as they are both undersized and underskilled and don't really have anyone who can create their own shot in the post. However, Tollackson showed that he may have developed some new back-to-the-basket moves during the off-season and put in nine points in 20 minutes with an EFG of 80. He also tallied three assists, which is encouraging because the passing ability of departed senior Jeff Hagen was a big reason for the Gophers offensive success (if it can be called that) last year.

That being said, defense is the main reason the Gophers had success last year and Friday night. The Gophers posted a defensive effeciency rating (pts. against per 100 poss.) of 75.92 Friday night. The average for college teams is right around 100 for this statistic. The Gophers forced 26 turnovers while committing 16. The Gophers' offensive efficienty rating was a sub-par 92.26. Both teams shot about the same as the Gophers' EFG was 49 and the Bison's was 45.

While Hargrow didn't exactly light the world on fire with a 45 EFG, he hit a number of outside shots and scored 14 points in 39 minutes. He also chipped in seven assists, which brings up an interesting subject.

When Boone was out of the game for five minutes, Hargrow ran the point. During this time, the offense flowed quite smoothly. In my opinion, the Gophers might want to experiment with Hargrow at the point more often and move Boone to an off-guard position. Hargrow is much quicker and has the ability to beat opponents one-on-one, while Boone gets most his points from outside the arch or coming of off screens.

In my mind, this could be a win-win situation, because it could provide Boone with more open looks from the arc as well. The Gophers already have trouble from 3-point land, and any boost would be welcome. One drawback would be Hargrow's tendency to commit more turnovers than Boone. However, while Boone isn't committing turnovers, he has almost zero ability to break down a defense and create open shots for teammates.

Hargrow should see some more time at the point with Tucker remaining on the bench, so we may get a chance to see how this plays out. By no means is he the idea point guard, but it might be the best option the Gophers have, even if or when Tucker returns.

-Grant Boelter

Season Preview; Minnesota vs. North Dakota State

2005-11-17T22:32:00.000-08:00

Gopher Season Preview Player breakdowns
(mostly subjective edition)

I'll be back on Monday with some heavier statistcal analysis, but right now I'm having software problems. Here are my player previews minus some of the heavier machinery.

Returners

31 Adam Boone, Senior, 6-2, Point Guard

Adam Boone is an enigma. On the one hand he shot .430 from beyond the arc as a sophmore at North Carolina, but the last time Gopher fans saw him in action he was shooting a dreadful .289 from 3 point range and .363 from the field overall. For the uneducated, that's not good. Honestly, Adam Boone has always struck me as a player who really doesn't bring much to the table. He can't create his own shot or beat anyone off the dribble . He won't really hurt you by turning the ball over (ala Kerwin Fleming or Kevin Burleson) but he doesn't really help you win either. With the Gophers starving for an outside threat, he will need to show that the 8-10 3 point effort against UMD was no fluke. There are definite questions about his man-to-man defense due to lack of quickness.

13 Dan Coleman, Sophomore, 6-9, Forward

Started 27 games as a freshman, and averaged 23 minutes. A big man who doesn't play big, but can hit the outside shot, shooting 26-76(.342) from outside last year. He will be valuable for his outside shooting, sure, but with the departure of Hagen and Lawson, there are real concerns about his defense. Only 225 pounds, he gives up position in the post easily and probably cannot matchup with the more physical forwards in the Big Ten. On a team that will miss the above mentioned Hagen and Lawson, Coleman will need to improve upon his 3.8 rebound average from last year.

15 Vincent Grier, Senior, Guard

Now we're talking. Unquestionably the team's best player this year and last year Grier will be counted on to carry alot of the scoring load again this year. Shot 200-425 (.471) from the field last year, but only 13-52 from 3 point range. However, anyone who saw the second half of the Wisconsin game last year, when he scored 26 points and completely took over, knows that he has the potential to hit the outside jump shot. He is extremely quick and if he gets the ball in the open court he is certain to score or at least get to the free throw line. He attempted 218 free throw attempts in 32 games last year. What gets sometimes overlooked with all his offense, is how complete of a player he is. An excellent defender, he averaged almost 2 steals per game last year, leading the Big Ten. He was also 7th in the Big Ten in defensive rebounds which figures to be huge this year as the coaching staff will rely even more on the guards to crash the boards. In short, one of the best players in the Big Ten.

11 Moe Hargrow, Senior, 6-5, Guard

Maybe you remember this guy. He was last seen in action 2 years ago appearing in 15 games and then quitting midway through the season as Kris Humphries ball-hogging the Gophers to a 3-13 Big Ten record. He then transfered to Arkansas to play under Stan Heath, but later thought better of it and begged to Dan Monson to take him back. I must admit, I'm puzzled by the whole situation, because if Monson has shown anything its that he won't tolerate any shenanigins with his players. I offer his dismissal of Mitch Ohnstad or his recent "academic lockdown" of Rico Tucker as examples. Well in any event he's here so let's talk about what he brings to the table.
He's more athletic than most of our roster, which I suppose is a good thing. He doesn't shoot all that much from outside, but he is a .367 career 3 point shooter. All in all he's a slasher who shows signs of brillance, but really doesn't have the ability to take over a game. Whenever he handles the ball he looks like he's going to turn it over. Plays good defense, and is a decent rebounder, should be an asset to this team.

2 Ryan Saunders, Sophomore, 6-1(I doubt it), Guard

Umm, remind me why he's on the team again. Oh, he's Flip's kid. Now I get it.
Basically the less I say the better.

21 J'son Stamper, Senior, 6-6, Forward

Probably my favorite returning player; this guy is a machine. A bruiser who knows how to throw his weight around, he plays like a warthog or a tasmanian devil. He gets alot of rebounds, but turns the ball over after half of them. He also has a reputation for not being able to shoot, but I think he shows decent touch from about 8 feet in. He shot .458 from the field last year, which proves that he's not taking anything too far from the basket. Stamper is in foul trouble the minute he walks on the court and partially as a consequence he only averaged 17.2 minutes per game last year. Only 6-6, but will be counted on to carry the load inside while Coleman and Tollackson develop.

50 Spencer Tollackson, Sophomore, 6-9, Center

Only true center on the team if you can call him that, Spencer showed promise early on last season before fading down the stretch. As is a common theme for this team, he is undersized as a big man and will have trouble with the bigs in the conference schedule. Can't hold his position in the post and doesn't really have a polished offensive arsenal in the post. I swear I'm writing the same thing for every big man, but its true. Shows good athletic ability. I look for Spencer to make some big strides forward this year, but that will not be enough to fill what's needed down there.

24 Rico Tucker, Sophomore, 6-0, Guard

Apparently not the best student, when or if Rico Tucker will play this year is currently up in the air. I'm sure this suspension will be over soon and we'll see Rico within a couple of weeks. When he does come back , we'll have our turnover creating machine back on the court. Rico averaged 1.44 steals per game, good for 10th in the Big Ten, despite only playing 17.1 minutes.
Despite his gaudy steals numbers, he is a gambler on defense and is often beat man-to-man.
On offense, he looked very good in the open court during the weak non-conference schedule last year, but was very ill-at-ease in the half-court set. I look for Rico to improve in his second year on his half court offense and eventually become an above average point guard.

Newcomers

30 Jonathan Williams, Freshman, 6-9, Forward-Center

If Williams can help on the interior, it would be a tremendous boost for the Gophers, who will miss graduated center Jeff Hagen. He was granted a medical redshirt last season. Doesn't appear to have much as far as back-to-the-basket moves, which is the problem with most of Minnesota's post players. It will be interesting to see if he can become a presence on defense.

33 Jamal Abu-Shamala, Freshman, 6-5, Guard

Abu-Shamala came to the Gophers as a walk-on from Shakopee High School and was recently awarded a scholarship by Monson, which could mean he will see some time in the normal rotation. All of Abu-Shamala's five shot attempts during the preseason have came from outside the three-point line.

3 Kevin Payton, Freshman, 6-5, Guard/Forward

Payton is recovering from off-season shoulder surgery. He could be expected to contribute if guard Rico Tucker continues to sit for academic reasons.

23 Brandon Smith, Freshman, 6-6, Guard/Forward

Smith sat out his senior year at Minneapolis Patrick Henry High School. Has been part of the rotation in pre-season, but hasn't made any significant contributions.

32 Zach Puchtel, Junior, 6-6, Forward

Puchtel sat out a year after transfering from Harvard. The walk-on bruiser will see most of his action in practice. Think Matt Smriga.

34 Damian Johnson, Freshman, 6-7, Forward

Johnson will be redshirted this season.

That's it for now. As I said I will be back on Monday with some statistical player analysis and we will also have a recap of all the action on Friday.

Game Preview:
North Dakota State (16-12) at Minnesota (21-11), 6 p.m.

For Minnesota, the going probably couldn't get much easier in the season opener. The Bison of North Dakota State are entering their first full season of Division I play. They have yet to enter a conference and will play an independent schedule. Minnesota has agreed to play North Dakota State in mostly every major sport, with the exception of football, as the school makes the transition to Division I.

While the Gophers should have no problem handling the Bison, its two exhibition wins against Southwest Minnesota State (59-50) and Minnesota-Duluth (78-64) were less than overwhelming. It is important to note, however, that Minnesota has a history of struggling against Division II opponents during the exhibition.

The Bison faced two Division II foes as well during the exhibition season. They defeated Minnesota State - Moorhead 71-57 and Valley City State 56-34. They struggled offensively in both games, shooting a combined 40.4 percent from the field.

The Bison played eight games against Division I competition last season, going 0-8 in those games. However, the school appeared to be gearing up for this season, as four of its top nine players in terms of minutes are redshirt freshmen. In fact, only two players in the team's regular rotation saw significant minutes last year - senior guard Phil Hahn and sophomore forward Dotun Obadina.

Hahn, the team's point guard, was the team's fifth leading scorer last year, averaging 8.7 ppg. He shot only 37 percent from the field, but converted 35 percent of his three-point attempts. Over half of his shots (107 of 204) came from behind the arch. That being said, the 5'11" Hahn somehow finished third on the team in free-throw attempts where he converted 86 percent of the time (54-63). He posted a 1.5 Asts/TO ratio (99-67).

Obadina averaged 4.4 ppg, shooting 48 percent in 18 mpg last year, which apparently has earned him bench minutes this year. Standing only 6 feet tall, Obadina could have some trouble against bigger Division I forwards. His game is mainly inside the arch as he was 3 for 13 on three-point attempts.

Among the newcomers who will contribute for the Bison are 6'7" forward Andre Smith, a junior college transfer and redshirt freshman guard Ben Woodside.

Smith averaged 13.6 ppg and 9.7 rpg at North Dakota State College of Science last year and recorded a double-double (21 pts., 12 rebs.) against MSU-Moorhead.

Woodside scored 17 and 12 points in the exhibition games and was a perfect 5-for-5 from three-point land against MSU-Moorhead.

It will be interesting to see if the Gophers come with a more concentrated effort in their first regular season game. It will still be tough to use this game as an indicator of what is to come this season, but the main rotation of players should see heavier minutes than in the exhibition games.

-Grant Boelter and Grant Peterson